Record-breaking 1,000 HDB resale flats hit $1 mil in 2024
By Nicholas Lam
/ EdgeProp Singapore |
The most expensive resale flat sold in 2024 was a 1,195 sq ft unit at Skyoasis @ Dawson for $1.73 million ($1,444 psf) [Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore]
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This year will see an estimated 1,000 HDB resale flat transactions fetch a price of $1 million or more, according to Huttons Data Analytics.
In the first 11 months of the year, 931 such transactions have already been recorded, making up 3% to 4% of the total market transaction volume. It is already more than double last year’s count of 470.
“Given the rise in million-dollar resale flats sold, it is no surprise that many HDB towns posted their highest number of such transactions,” says Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex.
According to HDB sales data, 23 HDB towns saw at least one million-dollar transaction in 2023. This year, over 82% (19 towns) of them recorded an increase in seven-figure sales this year.
Tampines saw the sharpest rise in million-dollar HDB resale flats from just two units in 2023 to 21 units as of November — a 950% y-o-y jump.
Topping the list this year is Kallang Whampoa, with 146 HDB resale flats crossing $1 million, 2.7 times higher than the 54 transacted in 2023.
In second place is Toa Payoh, with 124 such HDB resale transactions, reflecting 2.2 times more such transactions than the 56 recorded in 2023.
Sengkang also saw its first million-dollar HDB resale transaction in April, when a 1,539 sq ft maisonette between the seventh and ninth floor of Block 205B Compassvale Lane changed hands for exactly $1 million.
The town has since seen three other such transactions. Two five-room flats along Compassvale Drive fetch a seven-figure price tag, along with another executive unit on Rivervale Walk.
Read also: ANALYSIS: BTO or Resale?
Only three HDB townships have yet to join the million-dollar club. They are Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West and Sembawang.
PropNex’s Gafoor predicts that Jurong West will be the next to break the $1 million threshold, should market conditions and demand remain favourable. As of November, the unit that came closest to the mark was an executive flat along Jurong West St 41 that was sold for $980,000.
Flats that fetch a million-dollar price tag are often unique with sought-after attributes, says Gafoor. These include being near the city, having a location close to the MRT station and other amenities, commanding good views, being situated on a high floor and having a spacious size.
According to Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA, nearly 91% of million-dollar HDB resale flats this year were from mature estates, with almost half of those flats completed within the last 15 years.
Among the units sold in Kallang Whampoa this year, 66 units (about 45%) were located at St. George’s Towers, which recently completed its five-year Mandatory Occupation Period (MOP).
“This underscores a growing willingness among buyers to pay premium prices for select HDB flats with desirable attributes such as longer remaining leases”, says Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research & data analytics at SRI.
Units with leases commencing from 2013 onwards accounted for an estimated 342 (or 36.7%) of the 931 million-dollar transactions recorded in the first 11 months of 2024.
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (as at Nov 28, 2024)
Year of record prices
Of the 931 flats that were sold for at least $1 million as of November, some 60% fell within the $1 million to $1.1 million price range. While these make up the bulk of million-dollar flat deals, more transactions are occurring at the top end of the spectrum.
The number of HDB transactions valued at $1.5 million and above has been on the rise, growing to 20 such deals closed in 2024, compared to just one recorded in 2023.
The most expensive resale flat sold in 2024 was a 1,195 sq ft, five-room unit at Skyoasis @ Dawson along Margaret Drive that fetched $1.73 million ($1,444 psf) in July. The 45th-floor corner unit received competing bids from two buyers, according to Faith Wong, senior marketing director at ERA Realty, who brokered the deal.
The 99-year leasehold unit was just 3.5 years old at the time of sale. As a replacement flat under the Selective En bloc Redevelopment Scheme (SERS), the owners were allowed to sell their unit after seven years from the date of registration, or five years from the date of key collection, whichever is earlier. This allowed the sellers to put the flat up for sale sooner than the five years typically needed for Build-to-Order (BTO) units.
Prior to the transaction at SkyOasis @ Dawson in July, two other five-room units briefly held the record for most expensive flat, with each selling for $1.588 million in June. A 1,236 sq ft, five-room unit located between the 46th to 48th floors of 96A Henderson Road at City Vue @ Henderson was sold for $1,285 psf based on the floor area. It had 94 years remaining on its lease.
The other flat was a 1,206 sq ft, five-room flat located between the 34th and 36th floor at 9B Boon Tiong Road in Bukit Merah with 91 years remaining on its lease. At $1.588 million, the price works out to $1,317 psf.
The psf-price record for four-room HDB units was also broken this year when a 1,001 sq ft, four-room unit at Block 1C of The Pinnacle @ Duxton was sold for $1.45 million ($1,448 psf) in June. The Pinnacle @ Duxton is in the Core Central Area (CCR). The unit had 85 years remaining on its 99-year lease.
In terms of absolute price, it narrowly fell short of the record for a four-room flat set last year when a 1,894 sq ft unit at 50 Moh Guan Terrace was sold for $1.5 million ($791 psf). The unit was also the highest-valued HDB resale unit in 2023.
Source: HDB, Huttons Data Analytics (as at Nov 28, 2024)
More million-dollar flats expected in 2025
The trend of HDB resale units hitting seven figures is expected to continue well into next year as interest rates ease, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. Lee says: “This will give buyers a bigger loan amount to buy their property.” He forecasts that the market could witness as many as 1,200 such deals close in 2025.
PropNex’s Gafoor likewise anticipates that the number of million-dollar deals will remain elevated, supported by demand from buyers who have finished sitting out the 15-month wait-out period after selling a private condo.
HDB developments with attractive locations and other sought-after attributes that are due to obtain their MOP are likely to contribute to next year’s tally of million-dollar resale flats, Gafoor adds. These include Alkaff Courtview in Bidadari, just off Upper Serangoon Road; Ang Mo Kio Court along Ang Mo Kio Street 23; and Clementi Crest along Clementi Avenue 3.
Source: PropNex Research, data.gov.sg
HDB resale prices surge almost 10% amid supply constraints
The rise of million-dollar flats this year comes in tandem with a resurgence in HDB resale prices. Over the first nine months of 2024, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) rose by 6.9%. According to Hutton’s Lee, HDB resale prices are estimated to increase up to 10% by year’s end – doubling 2023’s total price gain of 4.9%.
Resale transaction volume is expected to chart similar growth. Lee anticipates volume this year may be as high as 30,000. This is over 10% higher than the 26,735 HDB resale transactions recorded last year.
“We have not seen such vibrancy since pandemic-related factors drove up HDB secondary market demand in 2021,” says Gafoor.
Prices were buoyed by a lack of new supply in the public housing market. HDB launched 19,637 BTO units in 2024, 13.8% fewer than the 22,780 units launched in 2023. Likewise, the supply of Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) in 2024 amounted to 1,588 units — fewer than the 1,667 flats released in 2023 via the SBF exercise and the open booking of flats.
Furthermore, the number of flats obtaining their five-year MOP is projected to fall for a third consecutive year from the peak of 30,920 units in 2022, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
An estimated 11,952 HDB flats reached the end of their MOP this year, 23.1% lower than the 15,540 units that reached MOP in 2023.
According to Sun, the supply constraints are expected to persist into next year. An estimated 6,976 HDB resale flats could potentially reach the end of their MOP in 2025. This represents the lowest number of MOP flats registered in 11 years, with the previous low occurring in 2014 with 5,301 units.
However, supply is anticipated to improve in 2026, when the number of flats that achieve MOP is expected to almost double to around 13,480.
Punggol will be the largest source of newly MOP flats in 2025 with an estimated 1,795 flats eligible to enter the secondary market. They include flats from the 588-unit Northshore Residences I, the 814-unit Northshore Residences II and the 1,021-unit Northshore StraitsView estates.
“These developments are strategically located near Northshore Plaza, providing residents with convenient access to essential amenities, food and beverage outlets,” says SRI’s Sandrasegeran. “As a result, these flats are likely to attract strong interest if they are put up for sale.”
Cooling measures and revised EHG
In an effort to curb the record-high prices of HDB units, the government introduced an additional set of cooling measures that took effect on Aug 20. The Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit for HDB housing loans was reduced from 80% to 75%. This brings the limit in line with loans granted by financial institutions, which remain at 75%.
The change effectively means that HDB homebuyers in the new and resale market will be faced with higher down payments, equal to an additional 5% of the property’s value.
For example, a property valued at $300,000 will now require an additional $15,000 in downpayment for a total downpayment amount of $75,000.
The new LTV ratio will not affect high-earning buyers whose monthly household income exceeds $14,000 as they would be ineligible for an HDB loan. As a result, it may not achieve the intended cooling effect on the HDB resale market nor the million-dollar flat market, remarks Huttons’ Lee.
PropNex’s Gafoor concurs. “We do not expect the cut in LTV limit to significantly impact the resale market.”
On the same day, the government announced changes to the Enhanced CPF Housing Grant (EHG) in a bid to provide greater financial support to first-time homebuyers, especially those from the lower-income group.
Under the new EHG scheme, eligible first-timer families can receive up to $120,000, up from $80,000 previously. Similarly, eligible first-timer singles can receive up to $60,000 in grants, up from $40,000 previously.
The record-breaking five-room flat at Skyoasis @ Dawson was a corner unit with high ceilings (Photo: ERA Realty)
New BTO Classification and upcoming BTO launches in 2025
HDB implemented the new classification framework for BTO flats in its October BTO exercise. Under the new classification, Plus and Prime flats are subjected to stricter resale conditions, including a 10-year MOP, subsidy recovery upon resale and an income ceiling of $14,000 for resale buyers.
The October exercise launched 8,573 units across seven Standard projects, seven Plus projects and one Prime project in October. Standard flats made up the bulk of launched units, accounting for 58% of newly launched flats, followed by Plus (38%) and Prime (4%).
The exercise attracted 35,678 applicants, resulting in an application rate of 4.16 applicants to each BTO unit — the highest BTO application rate since the August 2022 exercise which was 7.8 times subscribed.
Looking ahead, a total of 17,290 BTO flats are estimated to launch in 2025, 12% lower than this year. As details on the flats’ classifications are not available upfront, some buyers may turn to the resale flat market to avoid uncertainty, observes Huttons’ Lee. “While the Standard and Prime flats are easy to identify, buyers are in the dark on which BTOs will fall under the Plus category.”
The first BTO exercise in February will offer approximately 5,000 flats across Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands and Yishun. PropNex anticipates that the Tanjong Rhu project in Kallang Whampoa and the Queenstown project could be classified as Prime flats due to their proximity to the city and proximity to the MRT station and amenities.
PropNex’s Gafoor notes that with Prime and Plus BTO flats subject to tighter restrictions, some buyers may prefer resale flats which are free from such encumbrances. This could also lead to healthy demand for units offered in next year’s February SBF exercise as the new flat classification will not apply to existing HDB flats launched before October 2024.
The February SBF exercise will be the largest ever, with more than 5,500 flats to be offered. About 40% of the flats will be completed units.
Heading into 2025, analysts project that the HDB resale market will continue to perform well given resilient demand and tighter supply. Nonetheless, prices have likely peaked, with a slower pace of growth projected for next year. “Prices have already reached new highs in many locations, raising affordability concerns for numerous buyers,” notes OrangeTee Group’s Sun.
OrangeTee, Huttons and PropNex estimate an overall price increase of between 4% and 8% for 2025. Meanwhile, SRI has adopted a more modest forecast of between 3.5% and 5.5%.
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