Private residential market outlook and upcoming launches in 2024

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

December 20, 2023 9:00 AM SGT

The former Chuan Park is going to be redeveloped into a new 916-unit private condo (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

Singapore’s housing market was fraught with uncertainties in 2023 — geopolitical tensions, slower global economic growth, high cost of living, inflation and elevated interest rates. These came on top of property cooling measures in April. Further unsettling the market was the money laundering case involving more than $2.8 billion in luxury property, cars, cash and other assets.

“A lot of the uncertainties will likely persist into 2024, at least in the first half of the new year,” warns Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex. “However, market confidence has improved lately, with manufacturing activity picking up and reports of an upswing in business sentiment.”

Brisk sales at the 368-unit, 99-year leasehold J’den in Jurong Lake District on Nov 11 (88% sold on launch day at an average of $2,451 psf) and the 180-unit, freehold Watten House on Shelford Road in prime District 11, with 57% sold on Nov 18, have buoyed sentiments. The 474-unit, 99-year leasehold Hillock Green at Lentor Hills saw 130 units (28%) sold on Nov 11 at an average price of $2,108 psf.

The 180-unit, freehold Watten House on Shelford Road in prime District 11 was 57% sold on Nov 18, and 61% sold to date (Photo: UOL Group)

“With the launches of J’den, Hillock Green and Watten House, we expect to wrap up the year with about 7,000 new homes sold,” says Ken Low, managing partner of SRI.

Despite the market challenges, the median price of new homes sold in 2023 was $2,445 psf, up 15.5% y-o-y from $2,117 psf the previous year, says SRI. Low attributes the increase to a higher take-up in new project launches in the city fringe or Rest of Central Region (RCR) and in the prime districts or Core Central Region (CCR) this year.

ERA Singapore estimates that 6,122 new private homes (excluding executive condos or ECs) were sold as at Dec 7. The firm is projecting the year to end with between 6,500 and 7,000 new homes sold, marginally lower than the 7,099 new homes transacted in 2022.

The 474-unit, 99-year leasehold Hillock Green at Lentor Hills saw 130 units (28%) sold on Nov 11 at an average price of $2,108 psf (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

‘Shining beacon’

“Singapore has maintained its position as a shining beacon in the Asia Pacific region despite the global market uncertainties,” says Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore. “The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) anticipates the country’s GDP growth to range between 2% and 3% in 2024.”

Overall unemployment rate remained low at 2% in September 2023, even though retrenchments rose slightly to 4,100 in 3Q2023, from 3,200 in 2Q2023, based on Ministry of Manpower statistics. Singaporeans’ disposable income and personal savings grew 8.0% and 7.2% y-o-y, respectively, over the same period. “All of these factors continue to support home-buying activities,” says ERA’s Chu.

However, some buyers have held back on their home purchase this year due to high interest rates and economic uncertainties and may be waiting for new launches in 2024, notes Prop-Nex’s Gafoor.

Read also: The Hillshore preview weekend sees 700 visitors

Piyush Gupta, CEO of DBS, Singapore’s largest bank by total assets (US$509.1 billion or $683.5 billion), said during the bank’s 3Q2023 media briefing on Nov 6 that the cost of new mortgages for home buyers has come off to 3.3%, with some banks pricing new mortgages lower at 3.0% to 3.1%.

The lower cost of new mortgages for home buyers and the prospect of further interest rate cuts in 2H2024 “could boost the new home market, further lifting transaction volume”, notes ERA’s Chu. He expects demand for new homes in 2024 to be consistent with this year’s volume, at a projected 7,000 to 8,000 units.

Home prices to increase up to 5%

ERA forecasts home prices to increase by 5% to 6% this year. “Developers’ bids in government land sales (GLS) in 2023 indicate steady price growth for new homes in 2024, albeit at a more moderate pace,” says Chu. “Projections suggest that prices could increase by up to 6% by the end of 2024.”

Huttons Data Analytics is “cautiously optimistic” and estimates new home sales at 7,000 to 8,000 next year. “Signs of price stabilisation are showing in the private residential market,” says Mark Yip, CEO of Huttons Asia. He expects prices to grow more than 5% in 2023, a slower pace than the 8.5% price growth in 2022.

PropNex’s forecast for new home sales in 2024 is 7,000 to 7,500 units, slightly higher than the projected 6,500 to 7,000 units this year. Its forecast for price growth is between 3% and 5% in 2024.

“Developers have been willing to pay more to secure good sites for the past few GLS tenders,” says PropNex’s Gafoor. The latest examples were the winning bids for the three GLS site tenders that closed on Nov 7: Toa Payoh Lorong 1 ($968 million or $1,360 psf per plot ratio); Clementi Avenue 1 ($633.45 million or $1,250 psf ppr); and Pine Grove Parcel B ($629.388 million or $1,223 psf ppr).

Read also: The Hillshore set to preview on April 6

Widening price gap between new and resale homes

“The widening price gap between new and resale homes has driven some buyers to turn towards the sub-sale and resale markets instead,” says ERA’s Chu. “Newly completed homes have taken centre stage and are increasingly popular with buyers, given their brand-new condition and readiness for immediate occupancy.”

According to OrangeTee Research & Analytics in its private residential market outlook report on Dec 4, the number of completions or private homes obtaining Temporary Occupation Permit this year was about 19,050 units (excluding ECs) and is expected to decline sharply to 9,875 units in 2024.

“Most home buyers have been spoilt for choice given the wide range of options in both the new launch and resale markets,” says Prop-Nex’s Gafoor.

As at Nov 28, the number of resale transactions stood at 10,098 units, a 28% contraction from the 14,026 resale deals in 2022, estimates Gafoor. The median price gap between new launches and resale condos is nearly 50% as of 4Q2023. Given the more affordable prices than the new launches, the resale volume in 2024 could increase to 13,000 to 14,000 deals next year, Gafoor estimates.

The former Gloria Mansion at Pasir Panjang will be redeveloped into the new 59-unit The Hillshore (Photo: Strata AMC)

More than 40 new projects slated for launch

Next year, more than 40 new projects with over 12,800 units are slated for launch. January alone is likely to kick off with four project previews: the 172-unit, freehold The Arcady at Boon Keng, the 59-unit The Hillshore on Pasir Panjang Road, the 341-unit Hillhaven at Hillview Rise, and the 512-unit Lumina Grand EC at Bukit Batok West Avenue 5.

Lumina Grand, the only EC launch in 2024, “will be one of the most closely watched project launches of the year”, says ERA’s Chu. “Freehold projects and ECs will continue to see evergreen demand,” he adds. “Developments located close to transport nodes, amenities and popular schools are also highly desired by buyers.”

Developer City Developments Ltd (CDL), Lumina Grand should perform well, like most ECs, notes PropNex’s Gafoor. He sees Lumina Grand appealing to those unable to secure a unit of their choice at Altura, an EC nearby at Bukit Batok West Avenue 8. Launched in August 2023, the 360-unit Altura is 88% sold, based on caveats lodged as at Dec 12. Given Lumina Grand’s proximity to the Tengah new town, Gafoor reckons it will also draw those who want to be in an up-and-coming area.

Launched in August 2023, the 360-unit Altura is 88% sold, based on caveats lodged as at Dec 12 (Photo: Qingjian Realty)

Two projects, The Arcady at Boon Keng by a consortium led by KSH Holdings and The Hillshore by FRX Capital and investors led by Daniel Teo and Teo Teck Weng of Hong How Group, will “be on the radar of home buyers who prefer freehold over leasehold”, according to ERA’s Chu.

Meanwhile, Outside Central Region (OCR) projects such as Hillhaven, a joint-venture project between Far East Organization and Sekisui House, and the 267-unit Lentoria at Lentor Hills Road by TID (a joint venture between Hong Leong Holdings and Mitsui Fudosan) will provide housing options for those who prefer living in the suburbs, according to PropNex’s Gafoor.

The former Peace Centre/Peace Mansion will be redeveloped and will be launched as the 367-unit One Sophia (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

Significant projects in the CCR

Huttons Asia’s Yip expects up to 2,968 units to be launched in the CCR in 2024, “the largest supply since 2021”, he says.

Significant launches in the CCR include the 367-unit One Sophia (former Peace Centre/Peace Mansion) by a consortium led by Chip Eng Seng, SingHaiyi and KSH Holdings; the 683-unit Marina View Residences by IOI Properties Group; the 246-unit Newport Residences by CDL; and the 215-unit Skywaters Residences by Perennial Holdings and Alibaba Group.

The upcoming 790-unit new project at Marina Gardens Lane by Kingsford Group-led consortium should also draw buyers, adds PropNex’s Gafoor. The project is near Gardens by the Bay and the Marina Bay area.

Another project in the CCR that is widely anticipated is the 186-unit Aurea on the former Golden Mile Complex site by Far East Organization, Perennial Holdings and Sino Land Group. “The CCR project on Beach Road is in a rare and superior location in the city centre,” says SRI’s Low. “If designed well, this development will boast fantastic views and be a prized asset for anyone.”

The 186-unit Aurea, a high-rise condo will be developed on the site of the Golden Mile Complex (Photo: Albert Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

HDB upgrader catchments

“Out of more than 40 launches in 2024, several notable impending launches have already caught buyers’ attention,” says SRI’s Low. One is the GLS plot at the Lorong 1 Toa Payoh GLS site, which will be developed into a 777-unit private condo by CDL, Frasers Property and Sekisui House.

Another is the former Chuan Park, purchased en bloc by Kingsford Group and MCC Land. The site is next to the Lorong Chuan MRT Station on the Circle Line and will be redeveloped into a 916-unit private condo.

The Tampines North integrated development at Tampines Avenue 11 by UOL Group, Singapore Land Group (SingLand) and CapitaLand Development is expected to have about 1,190 residential units. The upcoming project will be integrated with a hawker centre and a bus interchange with a direct link to the upcoming Tampines North MRT Station on the Cross Island Line.

The new 500-unit private condo at Clementi Avenue 1 will be built on the site between the completed 505-unit Clement Canopy and the upcoming 640-unit Clavon, which is under construction (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

“New launches in areas such as Toa Payoh, Serangoon and Tampines have traditionally had robust housing demand, supported by a huge pool of upgraders from high-value HDB flats,” says SRI’s Low. “There has been a lack of sizeable launches in these neighbourhoods in recent times.”

Another popular area is Clementi Avenue 1, where MCL Land and CSC Land won the last GLS site in November. The new 500-unit condo by the joint venture should see strong demand, according to Low. “It is the last plot for sale in the locale,” he says. The site is flanked by the 505-unit The Clement Canopy, launched in 2017, entirely sold and completed in 2019; and the 640-unit Clavon, launched in December 2020 and fully sold by 2022. Both projects are by a joint venture between UOL and SingLand.

Huttons’ Yip points to other potential launches in the OCR that are likely to draw home buyers too. They include the 348-unit condo on the GLS site at Champions Way in Woodlands by CDL; the 276-unit Kassia at Flora Drive by Tripartite Developers (Hong Leong Holdings, CDL and TID), off Upper Changi Road North; the 533-unit Lentor Mansion at Lentor Hills estate by GuocoLand; and the 440-unit Sora (former Park View Mansions) on Yuan Ching Road by a consortium comprising Chip Eng Seng, SingHaiyi Group and KSH Holdings.

The former Park View Mansion on Yuan Ching Road will be redeveloped into the new 440-unit Sora (Photo: Albert Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

Investor-friendly, city-fringe projects

City-fringe or RCR projects that appeal to investors include those near employment nodes or in established neighbourhoods close to amenities and schools, says PropNex’s Gafoor. They include Kingsford Group’s The Hill @ One North, given its location within the one-north research & development and high-tech cluster. The neighbouring 275-unit Blossoms by the Park was launched at the end of April, and over 73% of the units were sold on launch day.

Bukit Sembawang’s Bukit Timah Link GLS plot will be developed into a 155-unit project. It is next to the Beauty World MRT Station in District 21, and is another RCR project that should appeal to investors, notes Gafoor. The 120-unit The Linq at Beauty World next door was 96% sold at launch in November 2020. Nearby, the 732-unit The Reserve Residences, which is part of an integrated development, saw over 70% of the units sold on launch day in May. “All these suggest healthy housing demand in that locale,” he adds.

The upcoming 226-unit luxury condo on the site of the former Meyer Park condo (Photo: Edmund Tie)

In prime District 15 on the East Coast is a mix of boutique and large-scale condos slated for launch in 2024, notes Gafoor. The largest is Sim Lian Group’s upcoming 847-unit project on the second GLS plot at Jalan Tembusu. The adjacent plot was launched as the 638-unit Tembusu Grand in early April and saw a take-up of 53% on the first day.

UOL and SingLand are expected to roll out their joint project, the 226-unit, freehold luxury condo at the former Meyer Park site on Meyer Road, which they purchased en bloc for $392.18 million in February.

Other developments include the 17-unit boutique condo on the former East Court site at Koon Seng Road by Macly Group and the 107-unit new project on the former La Ville site in Tanjong Rhu by ZACD Group.

Boutique, freehold developments

More than 10 projects in the pipeline for launch next year are boutique freehold or 999-year leasehold projects. “The boutique condo projects have done well in 2023,” says Huttons’ Yip. For example, DB2’s 78-unit freehold Orchard Sophia is more than 40% sold, while the 17-unit freehold Lavender Residences by FLJ Property is close to 50% taken up.

Buyers who want freehold homes in the city fringe or RCR can keep an eye on the 35-unit Ardor Residence on Haig Road by the Nanshan Group, says Huttons’ Yip, as well as The Arcady at Boon Keng and The Hillshore.

Some home buyers prefer boutique condo projects, notes ERA’s Chu. “Even amid the slew of new home launches, boutique projects continue to attract demand, albeit selling at a more measured pace,” he says. “Confident in the inherent appeal of the freehold tenure of these projects, developers prefer to take their time to market these properties.”

The former Bagnalll Court at Upper East Coast will be redeveloped into a new 106-unit private condo (Photo: JLL)

Such freehold or 999-year leasehold sites are generally acquired through collective sales of existing developments, unlike GLS sites, which are 99-year leasehold.

Such sites that have been purchased en bloc include the former East Court, Bagnall Court at Upper East Coast (which will be redeveloped into a new 106-unit project by Roxy-Pacific Holdings) and La Ville. Other examples are The Hillshore (the former Gloria Mansion) in Pasir Panjang and The Arcady at Boon Keng (the former Euro-Asia Apartments).

“En bloc attempts of such sites will come at a higher price due to the increased cost of replacement homes,” says ERA’s Chu. “Boutique projects are expected to fare better in the upcoming 2024 due to the limited availability of such units.”

Chu adds: “Next year’s launches will have something for everyone, from prime to city-fringe and suburban locations.”

Click here to download the EdgeProp 2024 New Launches Map

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