Private property prices climb 2.3% in 4Q2024; up 3.9% for the full year: URA Flash estimate
By EdgeProp Singapore
/ EdgeProp Singapore |
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URA flash estimates released on Jan 2 showed a 2.3% increase in the overall price index for private residential properties in 4Q2024, a reversal from the 0.7% decline in 3Q2024.
It marks the fastest quarterly price growth since the 2.8% increase recorded in 4Q2023, fuelled by a wave of new launches and robust sales, according to PropNex.
The flash estimates capture transactions up to mid-December, with the final figures set to be published on Jan 24. "With no new launches in the final weeks of December and softer sales, the final figures are unlikely to deviate significantly from the flash estimates," says Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex.
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Overall, private home prices rose 3.9% in 2024, a slower rate compared to 6.8% in 2023, 8.6% in 2022 and 10.6% in 2021. It is also the slowest annual price growth recorded since 2020, when prices increased by 2.2% amid the Covid-19 pandemic, says Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
Prices of non-landed properties—apartments and condominiums—jumped 3.2% in 4Q2024, a significant increase from the modest 0.1% gain in 3Q2024. According to PropNex, this marked the strongest quarterly growth in non-landed home prices since 3Q2022, when prices rose 4.4% q-o-q.
"The sharper rise in prices did not come as a surprise, as all sub-markets experienced growth during the quarter, with several new launches resonating well with buyers," says Gafoor.
Outside Central Region
Among the sub-markets, prices of non-landed properties increased by 3.4% in the suburbs or Outside Central Region (OCR) in 4Q2024, after holding steady at zero growth in the previous quarter.
Prices in the OCR were up 3.8% for the whole of 2024, a stark difference from the 13.7% growth in 2023, "indicating that prices have stabilised to a balanced level in the suburban market", says Leonard Tay, head of research, Knight Frank Singapore.
The increase in the OCR can be partly attributed to the launch of the 916-unit Chuan Park, which achieved a benchmark price of $2,579 psf in November 2024, with 696 units sold on its launch day. It bested the average price of $2,451 psf at the 368-unit J'den at Jurong East Central when it sold 88% of its units at its launch in November 2023, notes PropNex.
Based on caveats lodged, Chuan Park has sold 724 units (overall average price of $2,582 psf) as of Jan 2, 2025.
Another new project, the 348-unit Norwood Grand in Woodlands, also helped to support prices in the OCR when it sold 291 units (as of Jan 2, 2025), with prices averaging $2,067 psf, following its launch in October 2024.
Rest of Central Region
Similarly, non-landed home prices in the city fringe or the Rest of Central Region (RCR) showed renewed strength, climbing 3.4% q-o-q in 4Q2024, following a 0.8% QOQ growth in the previous quarter. It is the largest quarterly increase since prices grew by 4.4% QOQ in Q1 2023.
The price growth in 4Q2024 came on the back of four new launches in the RCR, namely the 228-unit Meyer Blue, the 552-unit Nava Grove, the 366-unit Union Square Residences, and the 846-unit Emerald of Katong.
Based on caveats lodged as of Jan 2, Meyer Blue has sold 132 units at an average of $3,247 psf, while Union Square Residences moved 106 units at an average price of $3,166 psf. Nava Grove sold 386 units with prices averaging at $2,442 psf, and Emerald of Katong moved 840 units at an average price of $2,617 psf in 4Q2024.
Collectively, the transactions at the new projects have helped to pull prices up in the RCR, notes PropNex.
For 2024, prices in the RCR grew by 6.2%, the highest increase among the three regions, according to Knight Frank's Tay. He attributes this growth to the near sell-out of Emerald of Katong, which sparked heightened activity in the vicinity. The buzz generated by Emerald of Katong extended to other projects such as The Continuum, Tembusu Grand, and Grand Dunman, which collectively sold 203 units in November.
Core Central Region
In the prime Core Central Region (CCR), prices grew by 4.3% year-on-year despite muted demand throughout the year, constrained by the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners, according to Knight Frank’s Tay.
Tay adds that the launch of The Collective at One Sophia and the sale of 64 units at an average price of $2,741 psf as of Jan 2, 2025, contributed to the price increase in 4Q2024. This followed two consecutive quarters of price declines in 2Q2024 and 3Q2024.
Landed housing segment
In the landed property market, home prices dipped marginally by 0.9% q-o-q in 4Q2024, ending the year with a slight 0.1% increase. Despite this, demand for landed houses remained steady throughout 2024, supported by the generally limited inventory, Tay observes.
According to URA Realis caveat data, there were 425 landed home transactions in 4Q2024 as of Dec 23, marking an 18% decline from the 520 deals recorded in the previous quarter, notes PropNex.
By property type, sales of detached homes rose by 8% q-o-q in 4Q2024, while sales of semi-detached and terrace houses fell by about 22% and 19% q-o-q, respectively.
In terms of average prices on land area, terrace houses saw a more significant increase of about 7.4% q-o-q (to $1,959 psf) in 4Q2024, followed by 3.7% q-o-q (to $1,760 psf) for semi-detached houses, and a 4.6% q-o-q decline (to $1,630 psf) for detached houses, based on caveats lodged.
Overall new home sales and resales
PropNex estimates that developers sold 3,453 new homes (excluding EC) in 4Q2024 (until Dec 22), taking total sales in 2024 to 6,502 units (ex. EC) – exceeding the 6,421 units sold in the whole of 2023.
"The new home sales volume in 4Q2024 is on track to be the highest developers' sales since 3Q2021 when 3,550 units were moved,” says Gafoor. "In the resale market, 3,084 private homes are estimated to have been sold in the final quarter of the year, which takes the total resale volume to 13,435 units in 2024 (till Dec 24) – also outperforming the 11,329 units resold in 2023."
The gross floor area (GFA) harmonisation guidelines help maximise the layout's usability and efficiency, with buyers paying for the liveable space. However, it could translate to a higher psf price because the price quantum is now spread over a reduced strata area (after discounting non-useable space such as the aircon ledge, for example), Gafoor points out.
"Based on caveats lodged, we note that post-GFA harmonisation projects tend to have a slightly higher average unit price compared with nearby projects unaffected by the guidelines," Gafoor adds. "As more projects affected by the GFA harmonisation rules are being launched, we expect any discrepancy in psf unit price to even out eventually."
Projections for 2025
Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore, anticipates continued growth in new home prices, projecting a y-o-y increase of 3% to 5% in 2025. “The robust pipeline of new home launches will sustain transaction volumes, which are expected to reach between 7,000 and 8,000 units, provided the economic outlook remains favourable,” he comments.
ERA further estimates that sub-sale transactions will range from 1,100 to 1,300 units, with median prices likely rising by 7% to 9%. Meanwhile, resale transactions are forecasted to hit between 14,000 and 15,000 units, with a median price increase of 6% to 8% by the end of 2025.
PropNex expects overall private home prices for 2025 to rise by 3% to 4%, while new home sales could come in at 8,000 to 9,000 units (ex. EC). The number of new units launched, projected at around 13,000 (including ECs) in 2025 – is almost double that of 2024.
On the other hand, Mark Yip, CEO of Huttons, expects developers to sell between 7,000 and 8,000 private housing units in 2025. The firm is projecting prices to grow between 4% and 7% in 2025.
"The market dynamics have changed significantly since the imposition of 60% ABSD on foreigners buying residential properties," says Yip. "While Singapore remained an attractive place to live for foreigners, the housing market is increasingly driven by Singaporeans."
An estimated 86.3% of purchases were by Singaporeans in 4Q2024 compared to 82.9% in 3Q2024, notes Huttons. Permanent Residents (PRs) made up 12.1%, while foreigners accounted for 1.2% in 4Q2024.
The proportion of purchases above $2 million has increased to 48.5% in 4Q2024 from 41.6% in 3Q2024, adds Huttons. The cut in interest rate could have given buyers a larger loan amount to purchase a slightly more expensive property in 4Q2024, reckons Yip.
OrangeTee's Sun expects private home prices to increase at a faster rate of 4% to 7% in 2025, primarily driven by more project launches and a faster resale price growth due to a tighter supply of homes.
"Many new projects are expected to be launched this year," she says. "The increased supply will lead to more transactions, with overall residential sales rising by around 5% from 18,600-19,600 units (excluding EC) in 2024 to around 18,000-22,000 units in 2025."
Seven large-scale projects exceeding 500 units each are expected to be launched this year, potentially boosting new home sales significantly. It is an increase from four large-scale projects launched in 2024 and six in 2023.
Another six mid-sized projects, with units ranging from 200 to 500, are likely to debut this year, according to OrangeTee.
Conversely, the number of private home completions or homes obtaining Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) will dwindle further in 2025. "The tight supply will likely drive resale prices higher, especially in the suburbs where demand will likely outstrip supply," says Sun.
Singapore's economy in 2025 is projected to be positive, possibly growing by 1% to 3%. "Our economy will be supported by the ongoing upswing in the global technology cycle and the general easing of financial conditions worldwide," says Sun. "A stable macroeconomic environment and positive domestic growth outlook will enhance consumer confidence and encourage more investment in the real estate market."
Check out the latest listings for Emerald Of Katong, Chuan Park, Norwood Grand, Meyer Blue, Union Square Residences, The Collective At One Sophia properties
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