Private home prices edge up 0.5% q-o-q in 3Q2023: URA flash estimates

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

October 2, 2023 2:44 PM SGT

The price growth reflects a reversal from the 0.2% decline recorded in 2Q2023 (Picture: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore)

SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - Private home prices increased by 0.5% q-o-q in 3Q2023, according to flash estimates released by URA on Oct 2. The growth reflects a slight rebound from the 0.2% decline recorded in 2Q2023. The decline, which came off the back of cooling measures announced in April, had marked the first drop in private residential property prices after 12 consecutive quarters of growth.

Nonetheless, the growth in 3Q2023 remains significantly lower than the average quarterly price increase of 2.1% recorded in 2022. “The growth momentum in private home prices has slowed substantially in recent quarters. This indicates the heightened sense of caution as developers, buyers and sellers parse market data to assess the impact of the cooling measures on housing demand, and as buyers take a watch-and-wait approach on their property purchase amid more plentiful supply of new homes in the last few months,” says Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex Realty.

Activity was also more muted in August and September due to the lunar seventh month, he adds. Private residential sale transaction volume fell 15% q-o-q to 4,569 transactions in 3Q2023, which is also 26% lower y-o-y.

The growth in private home prices was underpinned by non-landed properties, which saw a 2.1% q-o-q rise in prices in 3Q2023, rebounding from a 0.6% decrease in the previous quarter.

Homes in the Outside Central Region (OCR) led the way, with prices growing 5.1% q-o-q, followed by the Rest of Central Region (RCR), where prices increased 2.3% q-o-q.

Price growth in the OCR and RCR was primarily driven by new launches, such as the 598-unit Lentor Hills Residences, the 408-unit The Myst, and the 306-unit LakeGarden Residences in the OCR; and the 1,008-unit Grand Dunman and the 520-unit Pinetree Hill in the RCR.

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In contrast, condo prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell 2.6% q-o-q, extending the decline of 0.1% registered in the previous quarter. The segment remains weighed down by prohibitive additional buyer’s stamp duty rates for investors and foreigners, while the recent high-profile money-laundering investigation has also dampened market sentiment in this segment, notes Lam Chern Woon, head of research and consulting at Edmund Tie.

The landed private property market also moderated in 3Q2023, with prices sliding 4.9% q-o-q – a reversal from the 1.1% increase recorded in 2Q2023. This decline breaks an eight-quarter streak of landed housing price growth, observes Wong Xian Yang, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at Cushman & Wakefield. “Nonetheless, we don’t anticipate a sustained decline in landed home prices as landed homes remain in tight supply and still highly sought after by locals,” he opines. Year-to-date, landed home prices are up 1.8%.

In terms of outlook, Wong believes the private residential market continues to be resilient, despite heightened interest rates and cooling measures. “Unemployment rates remain low, and resale HDB prices continue to increase, supporting upgrader demand for private property,” he comments. Cushman & Wakefield is maintaining its full-year price growth forecast of 2% to 5% for private residential properties in 2023.

Chia Siew Chuin, head of residential research, research and consultancy at JLL, concurs, noting that local demand for private housing should stay healthy. “In October and November, transaction volumes should be supported by the potential launches of several new projects, such as Watten House, The Hill @ one-north, Hillock Green in Lentor Central and J’Den, which is the redevelopment of Jcube in Jurong East,” she adds.

Nonetheless, with 19 projects already launched in 2023 and pent-up demand likely satiated, Chia believes buyers will remain price-sensitive amid a weaker economic environment and higher interest rates. She anticipates private home prices, which have grown 3.6% over the first three quarters of 2023, to stay relatively stable in the next few quarters.

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URA Flash Estimates