Private home prices up 2.3% q-o-q in 4Q2024, bringing full year price growth to 3.9%
By Ashley Lo
/ EdgeProp Singapore |
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Private home prices rose by 2.3% q-o-q in 4Q2024, reversing the 0.7% q-o-q decline in the previous quarter. It is the fastest pace of quarterly price growth since the 2.8% q-o-q increase in 4Q2023. It brings the cumulative price increase to 3.9% for 2024, which has slowed from the 6.8% increase in 2023, the 8.6% growth in 2022, and the 10.6% jump in 2021, notes PropNex.
The final 4Q2024 price growth is unchanged from the flash estimates released earlier this month.
Non-landed private homes segment led the price increase in the quarter as prices climbed by 3.0%, helped by the q-o-q growth across all sub-markets as new launches propped up prices, particularly in the city fringe or Rest of Central Region (RCR) and suburban areas or Outside Central Region (OCR), which rose 3% and 3.3% respectively. Prime or Core Central Region (CCR) prices rose by 2.6% q-o-q.
URA private residential property price index
Source: URA, Huttons Data Analytics as at Jan 24, 2025
Record number of seven new launches in 4Q2024
A record number of seven new launches were pushed out in 4Q2024, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia. Five of the seven occurred in November. "It was the first time since November 2019 that the market saw five new project launches in a month," he says.
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The seven major non-landed projects launched in 4Q2024 – the 916-unit Chuan Park, the 846-unit Emerald of Katong, the 226-unit Meyer Blue, the 552-unit Nava Grove, the 348-unit Norwood Grand, the 367-unit The Collective at One Sophia and the 366-unit Union Square Residences – collected more than 8,500 cheques as expressions of interest ahead of their sales, notes Huttons.
Developers sold 3,420 new homes in 4Q2024, 194.8% higher than the previous quarter. "It was the highest quarterly sales since 3Q2021, and the highest fourth-quarter sales since 2012," notes Huttons' Lee.
RCR's 3% price boost in 4Q2024 was driven by the success of the launch of Meyer Blue, Emerald of Katong, Union Square Residences and Nava Grove. Their sales, in turn, had a ripple effect on the sales of earlier project launches in the vicinity, such as the 638-unit Tembusu Grand, the 816-unit The Continuum and the 520-unit Pinetree Hill.
Meanwhile, OCR's 3.3% price growth improvement came on the back of the successful launches of the348-unit Norwood Grand and the 916-unit Chuan Park, notes Tricia Song, CBRE head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia.
CCR's 2.6% q-o-q price growth in 4Q2024 was boosted by the launch of The Collective at One Sophia, notes CBRE, after a 1.1% q-o-q decline the previous quarter. Some CCR projects cleared their unsold inventory after offering discounts earlier in 2024, such as Cuscaden Reserve and Klimt at Cairnhill.
The 192-unit, 99-year leasehold Cuscaden Reserve is 85% sold, with 150 units sold since the discount in March 2024, with the average transacted price at $3,071 psf. The 138-unit, freehold Klimt at Cairnhill is fully sold, with an average transacted price of $3,665 psf.
Highest price growth of 5.8% y-o-y in the RCR
Non-landed private home prices in the RCR grew the fastest for the 12 months of 2024 - at a cumulative 5.8% - compared with 4.5% in the CCR and 3.7% in the OCR. The price growth in the OCR has eased substantially from the 13.7% increase in 2023. "It is positive for the mass market", notes Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex, "as it would not be sustainable for prices to keep rising by a double-digit percentage."
Full-year new home sales in 2024 rang in at 6,469 units – just 0.7% higher than 2023's total of 6,421 units, which marked a new 15-year low.
Resale private homes in 4Q2024 totalled 3,702 units, bringing overall resale volume to 14,053 units in 2024, 24% higher than the 11,329 units recorded in 2023 and the highest annual resale volume in three years.
Owing to the surge in new home sales in 4Q2024, resale transactions made up 49.8% of the total sales in 4Q2024 – the lowest proportion in 17 quarters, notes PropNex.
In 2024, landed home prices rose by 0.9% cumulatively – marking the slowest annual price growth in seven years – since 2018 (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
Landed home prices dipped 0.9% y-o-y
Landed home prices, on the other hand, fell for a second straight quarter in 4Q2024, dipping by 0.1% q-o-q after a decline of 3.4% q-o-q in 3Q2024. In 4Q2024, 485 landed home transactions were recorded, compared with 521 transactions in 3Q2024, based on caveats lodged.
In 2024, landed home prices rose by 0.9% cumulatively – marking the slowest annual price growth in seven years – since 2018.
"With landed home prices growing at a more moderate pace of 0.9% y-o-y in 2024, we have seen transaction volume rise by 29.9% y-o-y, from 1,286 units in 2023 to 1,671 units, says Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore. "The rising non-landed home prices have also helped more Singaporeans to move into the landed property segment."
Overall, the moderation in landed home prices can be partly attributed to muted transactions, limited new landed homes launched for sale, and the elevated interest rates weighing on landed home demand, notes PropNex.
With healthy sales at new launches in January, The Orie and Bagnall Haus, private home sales is expected to do fairly well in 2025 (Photo: CDL)
‘Continued healthy sales at new launches’
"Following the strong performance in 4Q2024 and the continued healthy sales at new launches, The Orie and Bagnall Haus in January 2025, we expect private home sales to do fairly well in 2025, barring any unforeseen events or new cooling measures," says PropNex's Gafoor.
He adds that the 3.9% increase in the private residential property price index in 2024 is in tandem with the 4% GDP growth, based on advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
A diverse pipeline of new projects is expected to be launched this year. Upcoming launches include the 501-unit Elta, 1,195-unit Parktown Residence, and the 477-unit Lentor Central Residences. "We think these towns and nearby housing estates may potentially have a sizable catchment of HDB upgrader demand," notes Gafoor.
PropNex is projecting prices of new projects in the OCR to range between $2,200 and $2,500 psf, with RCE average launch prices in the $2,600 to $2,800 pf range and CCR average prices above $3,000 psf. Meanwhile, the average prices of new EC projects will likely trend above $1,650 psf in 2025. PropNex also forecasts overall private home prices to rise by 3% to 4% in 2025, with new home sales in the 8,000 to 9,000 range (excluding ECs).
ERA's Chu notes that unsold stock was at 19,606 units as of the end of 4Q2024. "The upcoming 24 new launches in 2025 will inject a fresh supply of new homes," he says. ERA is projecting overall private residential price growth to continue its upward trajectory of about 3% to 5% y-o-y in 2025. "The ample new home launches will support new home transaction volume, projected to reach between 7,000 and 8,000 units in 2025," he adds.
Source: URA
Private residential rents to diverge
According to URA's private residential rental index, rental prices remained unchanged in 4Q2024 from a 0.8% q-o-q increase in the previous quarter. Overall rental prices in 2024 saw a 1.9% y-o-y decline, reversing the 8.7% y-o-y increase recorded in 2023.
ERA's Chu believes rental price growth will "diverge" across the market, with newly completed homes sustaining rental appreciation, while older properties see "flattish growth". He adds: "Properties in Singapore's outlying regions could see sharper rent increases and stronger demand as tenants become more cost-conscious."
Check out the latest listings for Emerald Of Katong, Chuan Park, Nava Grove, Union Square Residences, The Collective At One Sophia, Norwood Grand properties
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