Office investments still preferred in Asia Pacific despite challenges, says Knight Frank

By Knight Frank

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

January 23, 2025 11:00 AM SGT

Singapore’s office sector seems to have peaked, with limited expansionary demand due to a cautious occupier outlook and an increase in incoming supply over the next few years (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)

Investment volume in the Asia Pacific region totalled US$162.8 billion ($220.4 billion) in 2024, excluding Blackstone’s A$24 billion ($20.4 billion) acquisition of hyperscale data centre specialist AirTrunk concluded in December. It is a 10.8% increase from the 2023 market trough and suggests a hopeful sign of recovery after two years of downturn, says Knight Frank’s latest outlook report released on Jan 23.

According to Knight Frank, the office sector remained a pivotal factor in driving the improvement in investment volume. Annually, investment volume grew the fastest, at 16.1%, from US$51.2 billion in 2023 to US$59.5 billion in 2024, accounting for 36.5% of all capital received.

A major draw of office assets in Asia Pacific is the high occupancy rate compared to its Western counterparts. The average utilisation rate is 80% in the region, far higher than the 65% recorded in major US cities and 70% in the UK and Europe. However, the office market in the region has become increasingly intricate and multifaceted, says Knight Frank.

Read also: Median rents in the CBD down 0.8% q-o-q in 3Q2024

Singapore’s office market has remained consistently robust, characterised by low vacancy rates and resilient capitalisation rates that have remained largely stable. However, the sector seems to have peaked with limited expansionary demand due to a cautious occupier outlook and an increase in incoming supply over the next few years.

Opportunities prevail in strata-title properties and freehold offices in prime locations, which are highly sought-after by investors focusing on long-term wealth preservation or flexible investment horizons.

Hong Kong’s office market has faced a multitude of challenges, including high interest rates, persistent low cap rates, weak demand from poor business conditions, the downsizing of foreign companies, and substantial new supply.

Asset values have corrected significantly, with office properties down by as much as 60% in some instances. A notable example is the Cheung Kei Centre, which was acquired by the Hong Kong Metropolitan University at a 62% discount compared to its HK$7 billion (US$0.9 billion) valuation in 2022.

Despite the market conditions, the anticipated surge in distressed transactions has not materialised as expected due to hesitance by local banks. Although financial conditions are easing, low liquidity and weak fundamentals should continue to impact capital values.

In Australia, CBD office cap rates have generally stabilised after undergoing the quickest asset repricing in the region. Institutional investors have been on the sidelines but are now returning, as evidenced by recent sales to major offshore groups such as the acquisition of Exchange Centre by BentallGreenOak, the Miami-based real estate investment arm of Sun Life Financial, from Australian property group Mirvac and JP Morgan at US$381.5 million; and 333 George Street by German real estate investment firm Deka Immobilien, from Australian property company Charter Hall Group at US$ 267.2 million.

With occupier demand improving on the back of economic recovery, strong employment growth and corporates upgrading their space, coupled with a lack of supply from 2025 to 2027, rental growth will be supported, especially for the highest-quality offices in Sydney and Brisbane. Many investors will be viewing the price correction and improving fundamentals as an opportune time to acquire core Sydney assets with less competition, according to the report.

Seoul continues to follow a distinct trajectory in its occupiers’ market, boasting some of the highest occupancy rates globally, with prime vacancies at 1.9% as of the end of 2024. Despite a remarkable

16.3% growth in office rents over the past four years and a lack of supply in quality spaces, which initially attracted core investors to Seoul, the market’s appeal seems to be diminishing.

The shift can be attributed to a slowdown in rental growth, now reduced to a low single-digit and an increasing pipeline in the next few years. Further, taking into account the recent political instability following the temporary martial law imposition in early December, investor sentiments have become more cautious regarding Korean investments.

Tokyo-5 wards’ office market continues to exhibit low vacancy rates, coming in at less than 4% for 2024, maintaining a consistent trend. However, as the cap rate hovers around 3.5%, transactions of office precincts in the core office market remained limited and primarily accessible to domestic institutions only. Consequently, foreign investors are inclined to explore alternative opportunities.

Value-add plays key differential role

The ongoing prevalence of buyer-seller pricing discrepancies has prompted investors to re-evaluate traditional investment approaches that rely on cap rate compression. In response, market participants increasingly gravitate toward alternative strategies, such as opportunistic and value-add plays, emphasising income growth and cash flow-driven returns.

Opportunistic investors maintain their focus on acquiring distressed assets. However, the availability of such assets has been constrained, running counter to initial market projections during the period of rising interest rates.

On the other hand, value-add investments have gained traction, with this increased appeal stemming from a combination of influential factors. First, tighter yield spreads have prompted investors to explore higher-risk opportunities.

Moreover, a prolonged period of under-investment in new assets has coincided with growing demand from occupiers for higher-quality, sustainable spaces that enhance their ability to attract both employees and customers.

In response, some core funds mimicked a value-add approach, acquiring older or under-managed core assets located in markets with solid fundamentals and potential for appreciation.

The office sector holds significant potential for value-add investments due to the growing divide between obsolete buildings and premium spaces, driven by the increasing importance of sustainability goals and mandatory compliance with stock market regulations, resulting in sustained demand for ESG-compliant precincts.

A preliminary analysis of the MSCI Real Asset database reveals that nearly 45% of office buildings transacted with the intention of redevelopment or renovation in 2024 are to be converted into offices or mixed-use developments with an office component. The figure represents an increase from 2023, where only 41% were earmarked for similar conversions.

The demand has led to a two-tiered market, says Christine Li, Knight Frank head of research, Asia-Pacific, the author of the report. She adds that value-add investors can acquire and upgrade older properties to meet modern standards and appeal to quality tenants.

Return-to-office, hybrid work patterns

Global companies, such as Amazon, Dell in 2024, and most recently, JPMorgan, announced plans for a return to pre-pandemic, office-only models. Within the region, Australia’s Tabcorp and Grab in Singapore have also mandated a full return-to-office. Pressured by profitability targets, the trend also signals a continual shift by tech companies to more work-from-office days.

According to Cisco’s survey, the strongest factors that have influenced employers’ mandated returns globally are optimising productivity, preserving workplace culture, maintaining team communication, and responding to leadership pressure.

After remote and office work, many have come to expect greater control over their schedules and prefer a blend of both. While the higher utilisation rates in the Asia Pacific would mean that the debate is less polarised, the huge presence of multinationals in the region could still tip the scales.

The debate for and against hybrid work patterns continues, underscoring the disconnect between the desired flexibility of employees’ work patterns and what most management thinks is optimum.

The future of work will continue to remain nuanced. However, employers mandating an office return will have to grapple with talent attraction and recruitment difficulties.

“Hybrid work patterns remain a defining feature of occupier strategies across Asia Pacific, driven by the desire to balance flexibility with productivity,” says Time Armstrong, global head of occupier strategy and solutions, Knight Frank Asia-Pacific. “This evolving landscape presents occupiers with the need to redefine their workplace strategies, prioritising spaces that foster collaboration and connectivity while accommodating flexibility.”

Hence, occupier conditions in Asia Pacific will remain varied, characterised by ultra-tight markets such as Seoul and excess capacity in others, such as Kuala Lumpur. While a flight-to-quality trend will continue to fuel demand for well-located prime office spaces that boast high sustainability specifications, overall rent growth is not likely to be significant.

Occupier demand will remain subdued in the Hong Kong SAR and Chinese mainland markets as they continue to grapple with slow economic growth and a high supply pipeline. According to Knight Frank, it will compel occupiers to rationalise their real estate footprint or seek more affordable options. More flexible lease terms and higher incentives are expected to drive a continued decline in gross rents.

Some of the strongest rental uplifts are expected in Australian and emerging Southeast Asian markets as the development pipeline contracts. Strong demand momentum in India is likely to sustain rental growth despite an increasing supply pipeline. However, Singapore is expected to lose momentum due to the absence of major demand drivers and waning tech sector demand.

Sustainability debate focuses on impact as deadlines loom

Asia Pacific is a key contributor to global emissions, and over the last few years, major economies in the region have made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality before or by 2060. However, to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, emissions must already be decreasing and reduced by close to half by 2030.

In the latter half of this decade, there will be more urgency to turn ambitions into results. Aside from physical risks, indirect transition risks can also be borne out of regulatory changes or shifting preferences and the costs of reducing emissions. Singapore, for instance, requires all listed firms to make climate-related disclosures by 2025, followed by large non-listed firms two years after that.

National goals to reduce climate change will serve to heighten these transition risks by demanding a more proactive approach to sustainability. Climate risks can affect businesses through operational disruptions and have increasingly been integrated into organisational risk management frameworks. As net-zero deadlines draw closer, pressure to adhere to sustainability targets will be a priority for occupiers.

The next 12 months will further environmental, social and governance (ESG) as the cornerstone of corporate real estate strategy for most occupiers. However, given the political change and likely changing narrative around ESG within the US, there might be a slowdown in the attitudes and actions of US corporations active in the region, notes Knight Frank, which can indirectly impact overall sustainability priorities.

This is an extract from Knight Frank Asia-Pacific’s latest outlook report, “Charting new horizons – 25 trends shaping 2025”

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