Lack of launches, holiday period prompts December developers' sales to fall to 15-year low of 135 units
/ EdgeProp Singapore |
With no new launches in December, sales came mostly from previously-launched projects, including The Continuum (pictured), which was the best-selling project last month (Picture: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore)
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SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - Developers’ sales plunged in December 2023 amid the year-end holiday period. Data released by URA on Jan 15 shows that 135 new homes (excluding executive condominiums or ECs) were sold by developers last month, an 82.8% fall compared to the 784 units moved the month prior. On a y-o-y basis, developers’ sales fell 20.6% in December.
“This is the lowest monthly new sales volume since January 2009, when the market was reeling under the weight of the Global Financial Crisis,” observes Chia Siew Chuin, head of residential research, research and consultancy at JLL. During that month, only 108 new private homes were sold.
The lower transaction volume in December was “not unexpected”, as developers held back on putting fresh projects on the market in view of the year-end festive season and the school holidays, says Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex Realty. Just 36 new homes from ongoing projects were released for sale last month, down 96.3% from the 970 units launched the month prior.
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A couple of consultants note that softer sentiment among buyers also contributed to the muted sales. “Sentiment this year has clearly deteriorated with higher interest rates, softer economic prospects and two more rounds of cooling measures since,” remarks Tricia Song, CBRE head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia. JLL’s Chia concurs, pointing out that prospective buyers are now taking longer to make homebuying decisions.
For the whole of 2023, developers sold 6,452 homes – 9.1% lower than the 7,099 units sold in 2022 – despite more homes being launched. Last year, developers launched 7,551 new units, or 66.7% more than in 2022.
The sales figure for 2023 marks the lowest full-year sales volume since 2008, when 4,264 new homes were sold. Chia adds that take-up rates for new projects appear to have slowed, with JLL research showing that the average take-up rate for new projects (where the project size consists of at least 100 units) within the first month of their launch fell from 72% in 2022 to 55% in 2023. “The overall slowdown in new sales and take-up is reflective of the buyers’ cautious approach and resistance to high prices amid downbeat macroeconomic conditions, high mortgage rates, market cooling measures and ample new housing options in the market,” she explains.
RCR sales dominate
The Rest of Central Region (RCR) led new private home sales in December, with developers selling 66 units in the region last month, followed by 45 units in the Outside Central Region (OCR) and 24 units in the Core Central Region (CCR).
RCR sales fell 30% m-o-m in December, which is the smallest decline among all three regions. The RCR also saw the two top-selling projects for last month – The Continuum on Thiam Siew Avenue which moved 17 units at a median price of $2,775 psf; and The Landmark on Chin Swee Road where 13 units were sold at a median price of $2,853 psf.
In the OCR, new home sales plunged 92% m-o-m in December, coming off of a high base in November which was bolstered by the launches of the 368-unit J’den in Jurong Lake District and the 474-unit Hillock Green in the Lentor Hills estate. The top-selling OCR project in December was The Myst on Upper Bukit Timah Road which moved nine units at a median price of $2,182 psf.
In the CCR, sales fell 84% m-o-m, as November figures were propped up by the launch of the 180-unit Watten House on Shelford Road The best-selling CCR projects in December were Watten House and Midtown Modern on Tan Queen Lan Street, with the projects moving six units each at a median price of $3,258 psf and $2,882 psf respectively.
The RCR also topped full-year new private home sales, with 3,040 units (47.1% of total units) sold in the region, representing an 11.3% increase y-o-y. The OCR saw 1,953 units sold, down 21% y-o-y. In the CCR, sales totalled 1,459 units in 2023, representing a 23% fall y-o-y.
Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, highlights that the distribution of sales volume across the regions is roughly in line with the spread of units launched last year. The RCR had the biggest number of units launched in 2023 at 4,268, followed by 2,688 units in the OCR and 726 units in the CCR.
Foreigner purchases stay muted
Developers sold four new homes to foreign buyers in December, lower than the 14 units sold to foreigners in November. “With the punitive Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSDF) hike in April 2023, many foreign buyers continue to stay away from the new home segment,” says Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore.
PropNex’s Wong notes that since the hike of ABSD rates in April 2023, the number of new homes sold to foreign buyers (NPR) ranged from four to 29 units per month – markedly lower than the 66 purchases by foreigners recorded in April 2023.
Three of the four units purchased by foreigners in December are located in the CCR, with the other units located in the RCR. All four units were priced at $2 million and above, including one unit at Watten House priced at $14 million, says ERA Singapore’s Chu. “Watten House’s larger floor-plate unit sizes and its location in a good class bungalow enclave appeal to high net worth buyers,” he expands.
Higher sales expected in 2024
Looking ahead, January sales are expected to pick up, supported by project launches this month including the 341-unit Hillhaven in District 23’s Hillview area, the 59-unit The Hillshore on Pasir Panjang Road and the 172-unit The Arcady at Boon Keng on Serangoon Road. In addition, the 512-unit EC Lumina Grand in Bukit Batok West will also be launched this month.
Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, observes that up to 3,332 new homes across 13 projects may be launched for sale in 1Q2024. This includes the 142-unit The Hill @ one-north, the 267-unit Lentoria on Lentor Hills Road and the 107-unit Arina East Residences on Tanjong Rhu Road, among others.
JLL’s Chia believes that the prevailing cautious sentiment among buyers will likely persist into 1H2024 amid ongoing economic uncertainties, elevated interest rates, buyers’ resistance to high prices and their increasing selectiveness among the wide range of launch options.
Nonetheless, the robust lineup of new launches, combined with an anticipated improvement in the economic and interest rate environment in 2H2024 are expected to boost buyers' confidence and stimulate demand in the new home sales market, she says. Chia estimates the full-year sales volume for 2024 to rise to between 7,000 and 8,000 units.
CBRE’s Song forecasts a similar range for new home sales this year. “Overall, CBRE Research is cautiously optimistic on the private residential market in 2024,” she remarks. In terms of prices, she expects private home prices to grow between 3% and 4% in 2024, slowing from the 6.7% growth logged in 2023 based on flash estimates. “A significant correction is not expected given the still-low unemployment rate, resilient household balance sheets, and low unsold inventory,” she reasons.
Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, highlights that while the RCR and OCR saw more activity compared to the CCR last year, he expects the latter to see “a more dynamic phase” this year amid several major launches slated for the year. This includes the 683-unit Marina View Residences, the 246-unit Newport Residences; and the 267-unit One Sophia.
Sandrasegeran believes the projects will see strong interest, as the lack of recent project launches in the CCR has resulted in pent-up demand for homes in the region from both owner-occupiers and investors. “This anticipated surge in demand, coupled with the introduction of these diverse new launches, is expected to enhance the vibrancy and appeal of the CCR real estate market in 2024,” he adds.
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