Industrial property market shifts into lower gear, but bright spots remain
/ EdgeProp Singapore |
Singapore industrial property rents continued their upward trajectory throughout 2024, but at a slower pace (Picture: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore)
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On Dec 4, VisionPower Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (VSMC) broke ground on a new US$7.8 billion ($10.5 billion) wafer manufacturing facility in Tampines. The plant, slated to begin initial production in 2027, is expected to produce 55,000 wafers per month by 2029 and create about 1,500 jobs. VSMC is a 60:40 joint venture between Taiwan’s Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation and the Netherlands’ NXP Semiconductors.
It is not the only player expanding. In March, Japan’s Toppan Holdings started construction on a factory in Jurong Lake District that will produce semiconductor packaging materials. Toppan is said to be investing an estimated $450 million in the project.
VSMC and Toppan are among chipmakers and other related businesses that are setting up new production plants and R&D campuses in Singapore to boost their supply chain resilience, observes Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore. “Singapore remains a global production hub for semiconductors and chips due to its stability amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world,” he says.
These expansions are taking place as the global semiconductor industry bounces back from a downturn in 2023 brought on by softer demand and higher supply. Research by London-based consultancy Omdia shows the industry recorded a 26% y-o-y jump in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024. This is a reversal from the year before when revenue fell 9% y-o-y to US$544.8 billion for the whole of 2023.
The rebound has given a boost to Singapore’s manufacturing sector. After a sluggish first half of the year with two consecutive quarters of contractions, manufacturing output expanded 11% y-o-y in 3Q2024. The rise in output was led by the electronics cluster, fuelled by strong demand for smartphone and PC semiconductor chips, according to data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
Slower growth in rents
Singapore industrial property rents continued their upward trajectory throughout 2024, growth in the first three quarters of the year. As of 3Q2024, the JTC All Industrial Rental Index has risen for 16 consecutive quarters since 3Q2020. However, compared to the 8.9% rental increase recorded in 2023, momentum has progressively slowed. On a q-o-q basis, the index grew 1.7%, 1% and 0.3%, respectively in 1Q2024, 2Q2024 and 3Q2024.
The plateauing rents are indicative of a more cautious sentiment among occupiers amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment. JTC data shows that rental transaction volumes fluctuated throughout the year, with y-o-y contractions of 9% and 5% registered in 1Q204 and 2Q2024. “With capex and budget constraints, occupiers have been more prudent, valuing the flexibility to adapt to the changing market dynamics,” remarks Catherine He, Colliers’ head of research for Singapore.
Tricia Song, head of research for Singapore and Southeast Asia at CBRE, points out that consolidation in the third-party logistics and e-commerce space has also contributed to growing occupier resistance this year.However, the extent to which these factors have impacted the industrial property market has varied across different segments.
For instance, the multiple-user factory and warehouse segments have stayed relatively resilient throughout the year, registering rental growth across the first three quarters supported by stable occupancy rates.
On the flip side, in the single-user factory segment, softer demand resulted in both rents and occupancy slipping 0.3% q-o-q in 3Q2024, marking the first rental decline since 3Q2020. Business park rents also dipped, falling 0.2% q-o-q in 3Q2024 despite a marginal rise in occupancy. The decrease in rents extended the 0.1% q-o-q fall recorded in 2Q2024.
Big-ticket industrial deals
While leasing activity has been mixed, the industrial sales market was more lively. Following a quiet start to the year, activity picked up in 2Q2024, with several sizeable transactions taking place. These include the sales of BHL Factories at 2C Mandai Estate for $74 million in May, Kian Ann Building at 7 Changi South Lane for $63 million in June, and a single-user factory at 47 Pandan Road for $36 million in April.
The market received a further boost in the third quarter. In August, a joint venture between global private equity firm Warburg Pincus and Lendlease Group acquired a $1.6 billion portfolio of seven industrial assets from Soilbuild Business Space REIT, owned by Soilbuild Group and Blackstone. Several other large deals took place in 3Q2024, including ESR-Logos REIT’s purchase of a 51% stake in an industrial site at 20 Tuas South Avenue 14 for $428.4 million and Ho Bee Land’s sale of a 49% stake in Elementum, a biomedical sciences development at 1 North Buona Vista Link, to a Brunei sovereign wealth fund for $272 million.
The deals resulted in a sevenfold jump in industrial property sales to $2.45 billion in 3Q2024, says Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore. In a November research report, Savills attributed the leap in transactions to better sentiment due to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September, alongside improved manufacturing sector performance.
Despite the strong performance in the last quarter, Cheong views the big-ticket industrial deals are likely a one-off. “We may still see one or two large deals transacted in 2025, but unlike in 3Q2024, each would probably be significantly below $1 billion,” he says.
Supple-demand imbalance
In its 3Q2024 market report published in October, JTC estimated around 0.2 million sqm of new industrial space is expected to be completed in 4Q2024. About 33% of the supply is business park space, followed by single-use factory space (31%), warehouse space (30%) and multi-user factory space (6%).
A further 1.6 million sqm of space is targeted for completion in 2025, nearly double the average annual new supply of 0.9 million sqm over the past three years. The new supply in 2025 is predominantly made up of single-user factory space (0.74 million sqm) and warehouse space (0.65 million sqm).
The incoming supply, coupled with weaker demand, means that rental and price growth will likely further narrow in the near term. Barring the new single-user factories, which are mostly pre-committed to an end user, the influx of supply will likely result in a supply-demand imbalance in other industrial segments, leading to slower pre-commitment and occupancy rates at upcoming and existing developments, notes Collier’s He.
Colliers is projecting overall industrial rental growth to come in between 2.5% and 3.5%, stabilising from the 8.9% growth recorded last year. Similarly, price growth is anticipated to ease from 5.1% in 2023 to between 1% and 2% this year. “For 2025, both rental and price growth may slow down further to between 0% to 2%,” He adds.
Demand drivers
Despite the more muted outlook, demand remains healthy for multiple-user factory space, centrally located food factories, and favoured locations for logistics space, notes Savills’ Cheong. Savills forecasts rental growth of up to 3% for multiple-use factory, warehouse, and logistics rents this year before subsequently tapering down to between 0% and 2% in 2025.
In addition, the electronics and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to continue performing well and attracting investments. “Should the US Federal Reserve continue to cut lending rates in 2025, this could encourage more companies to deploy capex to pursue growth and expansion,” comments CBRE’s Song.
Knight Frank’s Tay is similarly bullish on the semiconductor industry, which he expects to continue bolstering demand for industrial real estate in Singapore, supported by growing electric vehicle and artificial intelligence requirements. The latter is also expected to support data centre expansion in Singapore. “Data centres will be an important pillar for the industrial sector as Singapore plans to increase capacity by at least 300 megawatts as part of the Green Data Centre Roadmap that was launched in May 2024,” says Tay.
On the other hand, business park rents are expected to continue facing pressure as companies downsize their footprint to cut costs or optimise workspace in response to flexible working arrangements. Savills estimates rents could soften by 3% to 5% in the coming year. Nonetheless, demand for newer facilities in central locations is expected to remain resilient, providing some support to the segment.
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