How will rising interest rates impact on office property prices?
By Christine Li
/ Cushman & Wakefield, The Edge Property |
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As Singapore faces impending interest rate hike later this year, there has been much concern over the adverse impact on the office capital values.
Since the start of the Quantitative Easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve in December 2008, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) office property price index (PPI) has been up 43%, thanks to the strong capital flows into Asia and the ultra-low interest rate environment which makes borrowing much cheaper.
According to real estate database provider Real Capital Analytics, capital inflows into Asia real estate rose from US$25.2 trillion (S$37.5 trillion, US$1 = S$1.49) in 2009 to US$54.9 trillion (S$69.7 trillion, US$1=S$1.27) in 2014, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9%. Given the increased demand from investors seeking for higher returns, property markets in Asia have been on a multi-year boom, with prices in many gateway cities surpassing the previous peaks.
Now that the QE has ended and an interest rate hike is looming, banks globally as well as in Singapore are set to raise their interest rates by the end of this year. In fact, the fear of a possible impending rate hike has already cooled the investment sentiment somewhat, reducing the total Asia real estate investment volume by 13% year-on-year to US$20.6 trillion in the first five months of the year.
Conventional wisdom is that rising interest rates could affect the office capital values in three ways.
First, the fair market value of any real estate can be determined using the universally accepted discounted cash flow model. A higher interest rate increases the cost of capital, resulting in a lower net present value, that is a lower capital value.
Second, the capitalisation rates of the commercial property will have to be higher in a rising interest rate environment, as investors demand higher returns on office assets. If the rents remain constant, valuation will have to go down which leads to a fall in asset prices.
Lastly, on the demand front, an increase in the cost of debt also results in lower investment spending to avoid high interest payment. Lower investment demand reduces the attractiveness of the assets, causing prices to correct.
Surprisingly, our research seems to suggest that the converse is true, meaning when interest rates rise, capital values actually appreciate more often than not. For simplicity's sake, only movement of the URA office PPI are illustrated in this article, here: but coincidentally, the same conclusion can also be reached with the URA residential PPI.
In our analysis, we investigate the movement of office PPI in relation to the three-month Sibor or Singapore interbank offered rate from Q3 1987 and Q1 2015. There are altogether 44 quarters in which the three-month Sibor increases from the preceding quarter. Out of the 44 quarters, the office PPI only decreases in 15 quarters (34%), but increases in all the other 29 quarters (66%) (see Chart1).
Chart 1: Movement of office PPI when three-month Sibor increases from previous quarter
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Even after accounting for the lagging effect (as the impact of rising interest rates on properties may not be felt immediately), the same conclusion still holds true. Of all the quarters where the three-month Sibor rises, the office PPI still increases in 60% of all the quarters, regardless whether the impact is felt one quarter or two quarters later.
If that does not suffice, we also carried out the analysis of the PPI trends when there was a continuous rise in interest rates. Surprisingly, we still came to the same conclusion that office capital values tended to increase when interest rates rose.
From the historical movement of the three-month Sibor, we identified five different periods of sustained increase in interest rates with no less than 1% over at least eight quarters. They are from Q1 1988 to Q2 1990, Q1 1993 to Q4 1994, Q1 1996 to Q4 1997, Q1 1999 to Q4 2000 and Q1 2004 to Q2 2006. With the only exception of the period from Q1 1996 to Q4 1997, which was the prelude to the Asian Financial Crisis, office prices continue to climb even during periods of sustained interest rate hikes (see Chart 2).
Chart 2: Office prices continue to climb despite sustained increase in three-month Sibor
Source: MAS, URA, Cushman & Wakefield Research
So, our analysis concludes that historically when interest rates rise, more often than not, office prices in Singapore also tend to increase. Therefore, it seems that the fear that the real estate market would crash as a result of the Fed rate hike may turn out to be unfounded.
So, what is supporting the office prices when interest rates go up? The main reason why interest rates need to be raised is no other than strong economic growth. The central banks tend to hike interest rates during periods of strong GDP growth so as to combat inflation and prevent the economy from overheating.
Strong growth in economic activities also have a positive impact on wealth creation, which props up investors’ confidence in real estate investment. It is the belief that prices will continue to shoot up drives the demand for real estate. If the physical stock is not able to satisfy the increased demand and supply does not keep up the pace, a demand-supply imbalance will be created, leading to further price increases. As a result, any dampening effect of rising interest rates seems rather negligible in the face of the positive effect arising from the strong economic growth.
So, what does it mean for real estate investors? A rate hike will only occur when the US economy is on a solid footing. A solid US economic recovery bodes well for the Singapore economy and its asset prices. However, the Fed has repeatedly shown its unwillingness to hike the interest rates at the slightest hint of weaknesses in the US economy. In addition, after Greece rejected the bailout terms in the landslide referendum on July 5, the Fed may be less inclined to raise interest rates should the financial crisis in the Eurozone deepen.
What this means is either our office capital values will continue its upward trajectory should the rate hike be sustained, or falter because the US recovery is not on track — in which case, the persistently low interest rate environment looks set to continue for a while longer.
This article appeared in The Edge Property Pullout of Issue 686 (July 20) of The Edge Singapore.
Christine Li is the director and head of Singapore research at property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield. The views expressed here are her own.
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