August new private home sales drop 63.6% m-o-m amid absence of new launches

/ EdgeProp Singapore |

September 16, 2024 1:12 PM SGT

SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - Developers sold 208 new homes excluding executive condos (ECs) in August — a 63.6% drop m-o-m from the 571 new homes sold in July, based on data released by URA on September 16. Including ECs, new home sales fell by 59.9% from 608 units in July to 244 units in August.

The m-o-m drop in sales follows the absence of new launches for sale in August, as developers avoided debuting new projects during the seventh month of the lunar calendar which spanned from Aug 4 to Sept 2.

Instead, units sold by developers came from previously launched projects. A total of 272 new homes were released for sale last month, representing a 55.8% m-o-m plunge compared to 616 units launched in July. Developer sales in July had been bolstered by the launches of the 440-unit Sora in Jurong Lake District and the 276-unit Kassia in the Changi area.

On a y-o-y basis, sales were down 47.2% compared to 394 new homes sold in August 2023. Year to date, developers have sold 2,668 units, 48.6% lower y-o-y from the 5,190 units sold between January and August of last year.

Last month’s new homes sales marked the lowest recorded for August since 2008, when 325 new homes were sold, notes Tricia Song, CBRE’s head of research, Southeast Asia. It is also the second lowest monthly sales so far this year, after February’s 153 units.

Song believes the muted sales point to a persistently tentative stance among homebuyers amid weak economic conditions and high interest rates, along with a resistance to high price points. “2024 is shaping up to be the weakest since 2008’s 4,264 new private home sales in terms of annual new sales, with the market sentiment cautious since late 2023,” she observes.

Despite the decline in sales volume, PropNex Realty’s head of research and content Wong Siew Ying notes that the overall median transacted price of new private homes increased by 42% m-o-m, from $1.7 million in July to nearly $2.4 million in August.

She attributes this to the higher proportion of units sold at higher price levels during the month. In July, about 41% of new homes sold were priced below $1.5 million, driven by the launches for Sora and Kassia. “Fresh launches tend to have a wider availability of smaller units which are transacted at a lower price quantum,” Wong notes.

In comparison, only 5.9% of sales in August were price below $1.5 million, with a higher proportion of homes sold falling within the higher price brackets.

OCR tops sales by market segment

New home demand in August concentrated primarily on suburban and city fringe projects, which are deemed to be more affordable and are well-located, says Christine Sun, chief research and strategist at OrangeTee Group.

Tembusu Grand was the top-selling project last month. The 638-unit condo along Jalan Tembusu in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) moved 30 units at a median price of $2,455 psf. In total, the RCR accounted for 31.3% of new home sales in August.

However, the Outside Central Region (OCR) was the best-performing market segment last month. A total of 123 units were sold in the OCR, making up 59.1% of all units sold in August. Top sellers include Hillock Green with 17 units sold at a median price of $2,108 psf; and Lentoria with 15 units sold at a median price of $2,217 psf.

Meanwhile, 20 units were sold in the Core Central Region. The bulk of the sale sales took place at One Bernam, 19 Nassim and Watten House.

In the EC segment, developers sold 36 new homes in August — down by 2.7% m-o-m from the 37 new units transacted in July. The 616-unit North Gaia in Yishun made up the lion’s share of the sales, pushing 24 units at a median price of $1,306 psf.

PropNex’s Wong notes that there are now around 200 units of unsold new EC on the market. “The tight supply should bode well for the next EC project that may come on later this year, such as the 504-unit Novo Place EC in Plantation Close in Tengah,” she says.

Bright spots in luxury market

Seven new non-landed homes transacted above $5 million in August, rising from two deals in July. In addition, while July saw no transactions above $10 million, one such deal was logged last month: a 4,198 sq ft, four-bedroom unit at the freehold 32 Gilstead that fetched $14.71 million ($3,505 psf).

The deal marks the largest quantum transacted for a freehold condo transaction in the first eight months of 2024, says Mohan Sandrasegeran, SRI’s head of research and data analytics. “The fact that this transaction took place during a slower period is a testament to the resilience of the luxury market,” he notes. Sandrasegeran adds that high-net-worth individuals, particularly Singapore Permanent Residents (PRs), continue to show a strong appetite for prime freehold properties.

In terms of buyer profile, Huttons’ senior director of data analytics Lee Sze Teck highlights that purchases by foreigners totalled five transactions, similar to July. Proportionally, it rose from 0.9% of total buyers in July to 2.4% in August.

Singaporeans made up 88.5% of buyers in August, the third highest proportion of Singapore buyers this year. “This could be due to more naturalised Singaporeans which may be a by-product of the punitive 60% ABSD on foreigners,” Lee opines.

PRs accounted for 18 new home sales in August, or 8.6% of total buyers. This is lower than the 64 purchases logged in July, representing 11.7% of total buyers.

New launches, anticipated rate cuts to support sales

Huttons’ Lee expects new home sales to pick-up slightly in September, underpinned by the upcoming launch of 8@BT. The 158-unit condo near Beauty World MRT Station is slated to launch for sale on Sept 21.

Meanwhile, other projects in the pipeline are expected to bolster sales in the coming months. This includes the 226-unit Meyer Blue that is estimated to preview in late September, as well as major potential launches such as the 916-unit The Chuan Park at Lorong Chuan and the 847-unit Emerald of Katong on Jalan Tembusu. “The influx of new property launches could lead to a surge in sales activities in 2H2024, possibly exceeding the 1,889 new homes (excluding ECs) sold in 1H2024,” predicts OrangeTee’s Sun.

Additionally, the anticipated Federal rate cuts expected in September may boost buyer confidence and demand and reduce financing costs. “Buyers purchasing new condos typically take up the floating mortgage packages, and they are more likely to benefit from any decrease in interest rates,” Sun adds.

OrangeTee anticipates 5,000 to 5,500 new homes could be sold throughout 2024, with corresponding new home price growth at around 0% to 2%.

CBRE’s Song is predicting a similar range for new home sales, along with a full-year price growth forecast of 3% to 4%. “Barring a major economic shock, the healthy public housing market could continue to support the OCR and RCR segments of the private market going forward,” she adds.

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