SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - The sale of Eunosville to MCL Land for $765.78 million on June 1 brings the number of successful collective sales so far this year to four. The total collective sale value so far stands at $1.5 billion, compared with the total value of $1 billion for the three successful sales in 2016 and $380 million for the single sale of Thong Sia Building in 2015.
With the collective sale market heating up, Edge Prop constructed a logit model to determine the probability that a condominium would be put up for collective sale. For the dependent y variable, “1” represents “success” and comprises 300 developments that have been put up for collective sale previously, whereas “0” represents “failure” and comprises 50 randomly selected developments islandwide that were never put up for collective sale.
The model found three variables that would increase a condo’s probability of being put up for collective sale. They are statistically significant at 5% level:
• Age (older developments have a higher probability);
• Number of units in the development (smaller developments have a higher probability); and
• Plot ratio enhancement.
Tenure (freehold versus leasehold) and location (whether the property is located in the Central Region or Non-Central Region) were statistically insignificant at 5% level.
Using the model, we identified the following private non-landed residential developments with high potential to be put up for collective sale:
Balmoral Point is a freehold apartment completed in 1974. Properties in the Balmoral Road area have been well sought after for collective sales. Balmoral Point is adjacent to Ventuno Balmoral, formerly 21 Balmoral Road. Chip Eng Seng bought the site in 2005 for $19.5 million. Other notable collective sale deals in the vicinity include Balmoral View, One Balmoral and Balmoral Condominium, which were redeveloped into Sui Generis, One Balmoral and Goodwood Grand condominiums respectively.
There are limited listings and sale transactions at Balmoral Point, which has only 31 units. The latest transaction in the development was in April 2013, when a 3,358 sq ft unit changed hands for $4.9 million, or $1,459 psf. Five three-bedroom units were let out at monthly rents ranging from $5,500 to $6,500 in 2016.
Located off Bukit Timah Road, Crystal Tower was launched for collective sale in 2011 at $1,600 psf per plot ratio and, in 2012, at a lower price of $1,458 psf ppr. Completed in 1974, the development comprises 28 freehold apartments.
An 8,747 sq ft penthouse at Crystal Tower is up for sale on EdgeProp.sg for $9.8 million, or $1,120 psf. The latest transaction in the development was in April 2010, when a 3,261 sq ft unit fetched $3.4 million, or $1,042 psf. There were three rental transactions in 2017, ranging from $3,500 a month for a 2,700 to 2,800 sq ft unit, to $5,250 a month for a larger unit, which was more than 3,000 sq ft.
Dalvey Court is located off Bukit Timah Road, between Botanic Gardens and the Stevens MRT station. The freehold development was completed in 1976 and has 32 units. The most recent transaction at Dalvey Court was the sale of a 2,142 sq ft unit at $2.6 million, or $1,214 psf, in February 2017.
It was reported that Villa D’Este, which is located in the vicinity of Dalvey Court, may be ready for collective sale in 3Q2017. This is Villa D’Este’s second attempt at a collective sale since 2010. There have been no transactions at Villa D’Este, following the sale of a 3,466 sq ft unit at $5.8 million, or $1,673 psf, in June 2011.
Dalvey Court is adjacent to the Dalvey Estate Good Class Bungalow area; Villa D’Este falls within the White House Park GCB area.
Derby Court’s collective sale attempt in 2014 was unsuccessful. The 20-unit freehold development was completed in 1978 and is located within walking distance of Novena Square. In the vicinity, Carlisle Lodge was put up for collective sale in May 2002 and subsequently developed into the 129-unit Mera Springs by MCL Land.
The most recent transaction at Derby Court was in August 2016, when a 1,991 sq ft unit changed hands at $1.8 million, or $904 psf. There were no transactions between 2011 and 2015. Prior to that, a 1,991 sq ft unit was sold at $1.57 million, or $788 psf, in August 2010.
Properties on East Coast Road have also been traditionally sought after in the collective sale market. East Grove is a 36-unit freehold apartment project completed in 1975. In the vicinity, St Patrick’s View and St Patrick’s Gardens were acquired through collective sales and redeveloped into St Patrick’s Residences and Seventy Saint Patrick’s respectively.
The latest transaction in East Grove was in April 2015, when a 1,033 sq ft unit changed hands for $950,000, or $919 psf. Monthly rents for three-bedroom units ranged from $2,000 for an 800 to 900 sq ft unit to $2,750 for a 900 to 1,000 sq ft unit from 2016 to January 2017.
Completed in 1975, the 120-unit Grange Heights is a freehold development located off River Valley Road, within walking distance of the upcoming Great World MRT station. So far this year, there has been only one transaction at Grange Heights. In March, a 3,025 sq ft unit changed hands at $3.7 million, or $1,223 psf. Three units changed hands last year: a 1,905 sq ft unit at $2.43 million, or $1,275 psf; a 2,659 sq ft unit at $3.8 million, or $1,429 psf; and a 2,713 sq ft unit at $3.1 million, or $1,143 psf.
In the vicinity of Grange Heights is Horizon Towers. At the height of the collective sale fever in 2007, Horizon Towers was on the verge of being sold for $500 million (just below $850 psf ppr) to a consortium led by Hotel Properties. Some minority owners opposed the sale and a long-drawn-out court battle ensued over 3½ years. The Court of Appeal overturned the sale in 2009.
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High Point is a freehold project located within walking distance of the Orchard Road shopping belt, adjacent to Goodwood Park Hotel. It was completed in 1974 and has 59 units. It was reported that Cairnhill Mansions, which is adjacent to High Point, may be ready for collective sale in 3Q2017. Cairnhill Mansions previously attempted collective sales in 2005, 2007 and 2011.
Two four-bedroom units at High Point are listed for sale on TheEdgeProperty. com. The smaller, at 2,885 sq ft, has an asking price of $5.3 million, or $1,837 psf. The larger, at 2,928 sq ft unit has an asking price of $4.95 million, or $1,690 psf. Two four-bedroom units measuring between 2,900 and 3,000 sq ft were leased at monthly rents of $6,300 and $6,100, respectively, in January and April. A four-bedroom unit of between 2,800 and 2,900 sq ft was leased in March at $6,200 a month.
The freehold Still Mansions is located at the intersection of East Coast Road and Still Road, roughly equidistant from the upcoming Marine Parade and Marine Terrace MRT stations. Completed in 1967, the 30-unit Still Mansions occupies a 24,951 sq ft site in the southwest corner of the Telok Kurau area, an established private residential enclave.
Two units at Still Mansions have changed hands so far this year. In February, a 1,141 sq ft unit was sold at $1.02 million, or $894 psf. The other unit, with an area of 1,044 sq ft, changed hands at $970,000, or $929 psf.
Located on Thomson Road, near Balestier Road, Tan Tong Meng Tower is a 35- unit freehold project completed in 1977. It was put up for collective sale in 2007. A stone’s throw away from Tan Tong Meng Tower is Skysuites 17, built on the site of the former Diamond Tower, which was sold at $49.6 million, or $582 psf ppr, in 2010. Elsewhere in Balestier, the former Ruby Plaza, a mixed-use development, was sold at $69 million, or $582 psf ppr, in 2007, and redeveloped into The Mezzo, which comprises office space and 127 residential units. At Balestier Point, a freehold mixed-use development, owners reportedly appointed a collective sale committee in October 2015 and a marketing agent in January 2016.
Three 3,240 sq ft, four-bedroom units at Tan Tong Meng Tower have been listed for sale on EdgeProp.com at $2.88 million to $3.4 million, or $889 to $1,049 psf.
This article appeared in The Edge Property Pullout, Issue 783 (June 12, 2017) of The Edge Singapore
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