SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - The first 11 months of 2022 saw 6,981 new homes sold, based on URA data as of Dec 15. Most consultants are projecting new home sales to end the year in the range of 7,250 to 7,500 units. “It’s at the lower end of our forecast of 7,500 to 8,000 units sold for 2022,” says Ismail Gafoor, CEO of PropNex.

Compared to the 13,027 new homes sold in 2021, it represents a 42% to 44% y-o-y contraction in private home sales volume.

The tally of new launches in 2022 is 17 private residential projects and three executive condos (ECs). New private residential units (excluding ECs) launched totalled between 4,500 and 5,000 units — which is the lowest since June 2007 when URA began publishing developers’ monthly sales data, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of research, Huttons Asia. It is also 53% below the 10,496 units launched across 25 new projects in 2021, Lee adds.

Despite the low number of new projects launched in 2022, “buyers had the benefit of selecting units from unsold inventory carried over from 2021”, says Gafoor. “Most unsold stock was from older projects priced more affordably than 2022’s launches.” For instance, the 1,862-unit Normanton Park was sold out as of July 2022 at a median price of $1,865 psf — lower than the median price of more than $2,100 psf that recent Outside Central Region (OCR) project launches achieved this year, such as Amo Residences, Sky Eden@Bedok and Lentor Modern.

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Unsold stock in the market is estimated to be between 15,500 and 16,500 in 2022. “It is far below the 10-year average of 27,000 unsold units, further adding upward pressure on prices,” says Huttons’ Lee.

Consequently, Huttons is projecting private home prices to rise 10% for the full year in 2022, on a par with the 10.6% y-o-y surge in 2021.

PropNex is projecting that overall private home prices will see a 9%–10% growth in 2022, with a more moderate 5%–6% rise in 2023. JLL’s forecasts are a little lower at an 8%–9% increase in 2022 and a 2%–4% in 2023. ERA’s projection is for a 10%–12% price upside in 2022, followed by a more tempered 5%–6% in 2023.

Check out the new property launches of 2023 here.

Ready for take-off

With the year drawing to a close, developers are fine-tuning their new projects in the pipeline for launch in 2023. Most consultants and agents are betting on Sceneca Residence being the sole project to kick off before Chinese New Year.

Read also:

Sceneca Residence opens for preview on Jan 1 as the first new launch of 2023

MCC Land receives sale licence for Sceneca Residence, project to preview in late Nov or early Jan

The 268-unit Sceneca Residence sits on top of a 21,528 sq ft retail podium with 19 shop units. The entire project will be linked to the Tanah Merah MRT Station on the East-West Line. The project is jointly developed by Chinese developer MCC Land, Malaysian developer Ekovest Development and Singapore-listed Chinese investment group The Place Holdings in a 51:29:20 split.

EL Development’s 275-unit Blossoms by the Park at Slims Barracks Rise in one-north, and Sim Lian Group’s 368-unit The Botany At Dairy Farm, are likely to be the next to hit the runway, ready for take-off after Chinese New Year.

The Botany At Dairy Farm is adjacent to the 460-unit Dairy Farm Residences by developer United Engineers. Launched in November 2019, the project was fully sold as of January 2022.

Likewise, Blossoms by the Park comes on the back of the launch of One-North Eden by TID (a joint venture between Hong Leong Holdings and Mitsui Fudosan), where all 165 units in the project were fully taken up within 11 months of its launch in April 2021.

“Projects with attractive locational and product attributes will find favour with home buyers,” says Chia Siew Chuin, Singapore head of residential research, JLL.

She points to projects in the pipeline such as the 271-unit Terra Hill (the former Flynn Park condo) at Yew Siang Road by Hoi Hup Realty and Sunway Development; the 740-unit The Reserve Residences at the Jalan Anak Bukit integrated development by Far East Organization and Sino Group; and the 520-unit new residential development at Pine Grove Parcel A Government Land Sale (GLS) site by joint-venture partners UOL Group and Singapore Land Group.

Over 40 new projects with an estimated 10,000 to 12,000 units are scheduled for launch in 2023, says Huttons’ Lee. Based on the number of units in the projects, 20% are in the Core Central Region (CCR), 50% in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and 30% in the OCR.

Three large-scale projects in prime District 15

While more than 40 new projects are slated for launch in 2023, “one in four is a boutique development with fewer than 200 units”, points out Gafoor. “Based on our experience and observations, sales at boutique developments do not move as quickly as larger developments, which have a wide range of condo facilities that are attractive to families.”

The unsold stock carried over from 2022 to 2023 will be low, adds Gafoor. “Those looking to buy a home in 2023 will have to decide between units from carried-over stock and newer launches with 2023’s new benchmark prices.”

PropNex expects mid- to large-scale projects in the RCR and OCR to be well received among homeowners due to the dwindling number of unsold units in these areas, particularly in the OCR or suburban areas. “We anticipate that most of these developments should be able to achieve a 50% take-up rate when they are launched,” says Gafoor.

Those interested in the city-fringe area of East Coast in prime District 15 will have three large-scale projects to choose from in 2023. There is The Continuum, an 807-unit freehold condo at Thiam Siew Avenue by frequent joint-venture partners Hoi Hup Realty and Sunway Developments. Another is the 638-unit Tembusu Grand at the Jalan Tembusu GLS site, located next to the Canadian International School (Tanjong Katong Campus), by a joint venture between City Developments Ltd (CDL) and MCL Land. The biggest is SingHaiyi Group’s 1,008-unit project on the GLS site at Dunman Road, which is adjacent to a park connector and the Geylang River and within walking distance of the Dakota MRT Station.

“Some interesting RCR projects in the pipeline include the Dunman Road, Jalan Tembusu and Pine Grove GLS sites, which were sold at land prices above $1,300 psf per plot ratio,” says PropNex’s Gafoor.

Lentor Hills estate, Jurong Lake District

In the Lentor Hills estate, Hong Leong Holdings and GuocoLand are readying Lentor Hills Residences for launch sometime in 1Q2023. It comes on the back of the success of GuocoLand’s 605-unit Lentor Modern mixed-use development integrated with the Lentor MRT Station. Over 85% of the units at Lentor Modern, launched in September 2022, have been taken up.

The 598-unit Lentor Hills Residences is located within a 300m walk of the Lentor MRT Station via a covered walkway. It is also within 1.2km of CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ School, which is one of the most sought-after schools in Singapore.

“We anticipate Lentor Hills Residences will be well-received among home buyers,” says Nicholas Mak, head of research & consultancy department, ERA Singapore. “It may appeal to upgraders in the north region as well as those living in the Yio Chu Kang landed housing estate who could be buying for investment or for the next generation.”

Another project that is likely to garner attention is Wing Tai Holdings’ upcoming Lake Garden Residences. The 306-unit, 99-year leasehold development is a redevelopment of the former Lakeside Apartments, which Wing Tai purchased en bloc for $273.9 million in May last year. (See potential condos with en bloc calculator)

The last private condo launched in the Jurong West neighbourhood was more than six years ago, in July 2016. It was the 710-unit, 99-year leasehold condo, Lake Grande by MCL Land. The project is fully sold and completed in 2019.

The spotlight is again on Jurong Lake District, with the government rolling out a 6.8ha white site as part of the 1H2023 GLS programme. The site is adjacent to the Jurong East MRT Interchange Station and will be launched for sale by tender to a master developer.

Seletar Hills, CBD and Upper Bukit Timah

For those who aspire to live in a landed property and in the neighbourhood of Seletar Hills Estate, there is the upcoming Pollen Collection by Bukit Sembawang Estates. The 132-unit landed housing project is located at the edge of the Mimosa landed housing estate within the Seletar Hills Estate. Pollen Collection is scheduled for launch sometime in 1H2023.

This follows the success of the launch of Bukit Sembawang’s final phase of Luxus Hills, located off Ang Mo Kio Avenue 5. Launched in February 2020, all 39 houses were snapped up over a weekend. At the neighbouring Belgravia Drive, 77 out of 85 strata landed houses at Belgravia Ace were sold on the first day of launch in January this year. The 107-unit Belgravia Ace, with 104 semi-detached houses and three terraced houses, is developed jointly by the Teo family-controlled Tong Eng Group and the family behind the eponymous Yeap Holdings.

In the neighbourhood of Bukit Panjang, just off Upper Bukit Timah Road, is an upcoming development by CDL. The new 408-unit private condo is expected to be launched sometime in 2Q2023. CDL is familiar with the estate, having developed the neighbouring 596-unit, 999-year leasehold Cashew Heights 32 years ago. Twenty-two years ago, CDL’s parent company Hong Leong Holdings, developed the 696-unit, 999-year leasehold Hazel Park Condo, located next to the upcoming development at Upper Bukit Timah Road.

Within the CCR, the CBD area will see two upcoming mixed-use developments with residences: CDL’s 246-unit Newport Residences on the site of the former Fuji Xerox Towers on Anson Road; and IOI Properties’ 685-unit condo at Marina View. Slated for launch later this year is also the redevelopment of the former AXA Tower at 8 Shenton Way. Soaring 305m in height, the 63-storey skyscraper will be the tallest in Singapore and will be a mixed-use development with luxury residences.

Cautious projections

Despite the larger line-up of new projects slated for launch, Gafoor’s forecast is for new home sales in 2023 to ring in at about 8,000 to 9,000 units.

ERA’s Mak is estimating about 7,500 to 8,500 new private homes to be sold in 2023, while JLL’s Chia is more cautious, with a projection of 7,000 to 8,000 new home sales next year.

“We expect the market cooling measures and macroeconomic uncertainties to continue to weigh on the market in 2023,” says Chia. “Nonetheless, confidence in the potential long-term capital appreciation of Singapore properties, healthy household liquidity, low unemployment and aspirations for homeownership will continue to underpin home-buying demand.”

She adds that supply-led demand from new major project launches and “needs-motivated home purchases, such as those who are upgrading from another property and those right-sizing to a smaller private home” demand will also support the market.

ERA’s Mak expects to see new launch prices “stabilise and grow at a more sustainable rate” in 2023 as home buyers recalibrate their expectations. “In light of rising interest rates and the existing cooling measures, some home buyers may hesitate to commit to purchasing a property,” he says. “Also, the recent mass layoffs in the tech sector and future economic uncertainty may contribute to a slowdown in buyer demand.”

Next year, prices of new launches in the OCR are expected to be “similar to that of 2022”, says PropNex’s Gafoor. Meanwhile, he foresees benchmark prices will be set in the RCR.

Check out the latest listings near Sceneca Residence, The Botany At Dairy Farm, Blossoms by the Park, Lentor Hills Residences, Pollen Collection, Dairy Farm Residences, The Continuum, Seletar Hills Estate, Hazel Park Condo, Belgravia Ace, Newport Residences, Marina View, Tanah Merah MRT Station, Dakota MRT Station, Lentor MRT Station, Jurong East MRT Interchange Station

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