SINGAPORE (EDGEPROP) - HDB resale prices logged a 2.1% q-o-q increase in 4Q2022 based on flash estimates, easing from the 2.6% growth recorded in 3Q2022. This is the slowest quarterly growth since 3Q2020 when prices grew 1.5%, notes Christine Sun, senior vice president of research & analytics at OrangeTee & Tie.

Sun attributes the slowdown to cooling measures rolled out last September which include the tightening of borrowing limits for both HDB loans and private loans, as well as more stringent total debt servicing and mortgage servicing ratios. Rising interest rates have also impacted buyers, she adds.

The flash estimates bring full-year HDB resale flat price growth to 10.3% in 2022, less than the 12.7% increase logged in 2021, but still double the 5% growth recorded in 2020. “Prices have risen for 11 consecutive quarters and remained at a record high last quarter,” Sun observes.

Read also: HDB resale flat prices climb 2.6% in 3Q2022

HDB resale prices were bolstered by million-dollar flat transactions throughout the year. Wong Siew Ying, head of research and content at PropNex Realty, notes that 2022 saw a record 370 resale flats sold for at least $1 million, surpassing the 259 transactions in 2021. The priciest resale flat transacted in 2022 was a five-room flat at SkyTerrace @ Dawson, which fetched $1.418 million in July 2022.

Nonetheless, the number of million-dollar flat transactions has also started moderating after the rollout of the cooling measures, notes OrangeTee & Tie’s Sun. She highlights 91 such flats changed hands in 4Q2022, declining from the 111 units transacted the previous quarter. “The monthly sales of million-dollar flats have normalised to 26 units each in November and December, down from a high of 45 units in September 2022 after the cooling measures,” she adds.

Lee Sze Teck, senior director of research at Huttons Asia, anticipates million-dollar flat transactions to further reduce this year, as the market continues to absorb the impact of the cooling measures along with rising interest rates. He projects between 120 to 240 flats to transact at prices of at least $1 million in 2023.

For the wider HDB resale market, demand is expected to remain steady. “We project that some 27,000 to 28,000 flats could be resold this year – relatively on par with 2022,” says PropNex’s Wong. She adds that resale flat supply may remain constrained as only 15,748 HDB flats are expected to hit their five-year minimum occupation period (MOP) in 2023, a significant drop compared to 31,325 flats in 2022. (Find HDB flats for rent or sale with our Singapore HDB directory)

While some demand for resale flats is expected to be diverted to Build-to-Order (BTO) flats – over 23,000 BTO flats are expected to be launched in 2023 – Wong views that buyers looking for move-in-ready or larger flats will continue to tap the resale market.

Nonetheless, HDB resale price growth is expected to stabilise next year, given the cooling measures. Huttons’ Lee is expecting a price increase of not more than 5% in 2023, while OrangeTee & Tie’s Sun is forecasting prices to grow between 5% to 8%.