Crowd at Grand Dunman sales gallery, with 10,000 visitors on its preview weekend (Photo: SingHaiyi Group)
According to the latest URA data released earlier today [Aug 15], sales in July catapulted to 1,412 units (excluding executive condos or ECs), marking a five-fold increase from the previous month's figure of 278 units.
Four project launches drove the sales rebound: the 1,008-unit Grand Dunman, 598-unit Lentor Hills Residences, 520-unit Pinetree Hill, and 408-unit The Myst – which collectively accounted for 82% of July's new private home sales. On a year-on-year basis, sales were up nearly 69% from 836 units in July 2022.
July's sales performance is the strongest in nearly two years since 1,547 new private homes (ex. ECs) were sold in November 2021. "As expected, new home sales made a strong comeback in July, after a brief slump in the previous month, as four back-to-back new launches helped to turbocharge developers' sales to a near two-year high in July," says Wong Siew Ying, head of research & content, PropNex Realty.
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Based on URA data, Grand Dunman sold 549 units (54%) at a median price of $2,519 psf. Lentor Hills Residences moved 334 units (56%) at a median price of $2,107 psf. The Myst has sold 150 units (31%) at a median price of $2,056 psf, and Pinetree Hill transacted about 150 units (29%) at a median price of $2,360 psf. "Buyers remain price-conscious, discerning and selective, preferring projects close to an MRT station or amenities," says PropNex's Wong.
Lentor Hills Residences was launched in July and moved 334 units (56%) at a median price of $2,107 psf (Photo: Hong Leong)
By market segment, July's developer sales (excluding ECs) were skewed towards the city fringe or Rest of Central Region (RCR), where 836 units (59.2%) were sold, followed by the suburbs or Outside Central Region (OCR), where 488 units (34.6%) were sold, while the Core Central Region (CCR) saw the sale of 88 units (6.2%), says Tricia Song, head of research for Southeast Asia, CBRE. In June 2023, the proportion was 40.3% in the CCR, 52.9% in the RCR and 6.8% in the OCR in Jun 2023.
Proportion of foreign buyers sink to lowest level since May 1998
The proportion of CCR sales of 6.2% is the lowest level in two years, says Lee Sze Teck, senior director of research, Huttons Data Analytics.
The number of foreigners buying residential properties doubled in July to 23. Eight of the purchases were in the CCR, 13 in the RCR and the remaining two in the OCR, according to Huttons.
In the luxury market, just 11 private homes above $5 million were sold in July, of which Singaporeans purchased nine, says Eugene Lim, key executive officer of ERA Realty. “Foreign buyers have shunned the luxury home segment since the government hiked the ABDS [additional buyer’s stamp duty] for foreign buyers to 60% in late-April.”
July's priciest transaction was a 2,788 sq ft, five-bedroom leasehold apartment at Canninghill Piers sold for $8.6 million or S$3,102 psf, says Christine Sun, senior vice president of research and analytics, OrangeTee & Tie.
Three units at Grand Dunman were transacted for at least $5 million, with the priciest unit hitting $5.2 million or $2,440 psf for a 2,131 sq ft, five-bedder on the 17th floor. Four of the remaining six non-landed homes were from One Pearl Bank, and one each at Klimt Cairnhill and Dalvey Haus, notes Sun.
New non-landed private home sales to foreigners (non-Permanent Residents) sank to a low of 1.6% in July, says PropNex -- the lowest since May 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/98.
Three units at Grand Dunman were transacted for at least $5 million, with the priciest unit hitting $5.2 million or $2,440 psf for a 2,131 sq ft, five-bedder on the 17th floor (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
Based on caveats, the proportion of new non-landed private homes purchased by Singaporeans rose to 88.4% in July 2023, the highest proportion since 90.1% in March 2009, observed PropNex.
Wong attributes the rise in the proportion of Singaporean buyers to the injection of new launches in the RCR and OCR in July, and a pullback in foreign investment demand, offering more opportunities to local buyers.
The largest proportion (35%) of new private homes sold (excl. ECs) in July were in the $1.50 million to $2 million range, according to CBRE Research. This is followed by private homes in the $1 million to $1.5 million bracket (23.4%).
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After July’s strong showing, total new home sales in August are likely to be lower than in July in the absence of new mega project launches above 1,000 units, reckons OrangeTee & Tie’s Sun.
From September, some 13 new projects are in the pipeline for launch, notes ERA’s Lim, including the 474-unit Hillock Green at Lentor Central (OCR) by a consortium made up of Forsea, Soilbuild and United Engineers; the 142-unit The Hill @ one-north (RCR) by Kingsford and the 748-unit Marina View Residences (CCR) by IOI Properties.
The Myst has sold 150 units (31%) at a median price of $2,056 psf (Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/EdgeProp Singapore)
"We estimate between 7,000 and 8,000 new homes could be sold, and new home prices may climb 3% to 5% for the full year," says OrangeTee's Sun.
PropNex's forecast is for 7,000 to 7,500 new private homes to be sold for 2023, while ERA's projection is also in the 7,000 to 8,000 range. Huttons is expecting about 8,000 units to be sold this year.
CBRE Research expects 6,500 to 7,500 new private homes to be sold in 2023, on a par with the 7,099 units in 2022, "which was a 14-year low since 2008's 4,264 units," points out Song. "We are of the view that the souring macro backdrop, elevated interest rate hikes, and cooling measures have slowed demand, though this has become more prominent with the abundant new launches that have come through over the past two months," she says.
Edmund Tie lowered its forecast from 7,000 to 8,000 previously to 6,500 to 7,000, which aligns with CBRE’s projections. "Overall property prices may trade sideways in the second half of 2023 as the tighter financing environment would weigh down on housing affordability, while the still-high construction and land costs would put a floor on pricing," says Lam Chern Woon, head of research at Edmund Tie. "Prices are poised to rise at a more sustainable pace of 3-5% this year, following 2022's 8.6%."
CBRE, on the other hand, expects price growth to be in the 3% range due mainly to a weaker economic outlook, with the Ministry of Trade & Industry forecasting a 0.5% to 1.5% GDP growth for 2023 versus 3.6% for 2022.
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