The upcoming build-to-order (BTO) exercise in February will feature approximately 4,960 flats from five projects across four towns. This may seem like a significantly smaller number compared to the most recent BTO exercise in October last year, when 8,573 flats from 15 projects across nine towns were made available for application. However, the October BTO exercise was an anomaly. The previous BTO exercise in June last year featured 6,938 flats from eight projects across six towns.

Notably, all five projects in the upcoming BTO exercise will feature at least 600 flats. There are also two massive projects (Queenstown and Woodlands) with over 1,000 available flats each. Additionally, all four towns involved in the upcoming BTO exercise are either in the central region or the north region. Queenstown and Kallang/Whampoa are in the central region, while Woodlands and Yishun are in the north Region. Additionally, Yishun is the only town with two projects, and both projects are located within a stone’s throw of each other.

Project #1: Kallang/Whampoa

The upcoming BTO project in Kallang/Whampoa is expected to feature approximately 800 homes, comprising two-room flexi, three-room, and four-room flats (see Map 1). The flats in this project are expected to be launched under the Prime category due to the project's central location along Tanjong Rhu Walk and its proximity to Tanjong Rhu MRT Station.

Read also: HDB resale prices rises 2.6% in 4Q2024, up 9.7% across the year

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Furthermore, nearby Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II were launched as a Prime project during the BTO exercise in June last year. Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II are also located along Tanjong Rhu Road and adjacent to the Geylang River.

Prospective applicants should note that Prime flats are subject to stricter conditions, including a longer minimum occupation period (MOP) of 10 years and a subsidy clawback upon sale.

Future residents of the upcoming Kallang/Whampoa BTO project will appreciate its central location, which makes the project is ideal for those working in the CBD. The project will also appeal to sporty individuals, due to its proximity to the Singapore Sports Hub (see Table 1).

There are no primary schools within a 1km radius of the upcoming project. Additionally, Kong Hwa School is the only primary school within a 2km radius. The lack of nearby primary schools could be a drawback for parents with young children, but this may be mitigated by the preschool that is expected to be built within the project.

The project’s proximity to East Coast Parkway, Pan Island Expressway, Kallang–Paya Lebar Expressway, and Marina Coastal Expressway is a double-edged sword. While these four expressways enhance road connectivity for future residents who drive, they could also bring more traffic noise and dust.

Strong demand is expected for the upcoming BTO project based on the application rates for Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II. All flat types in these projects, except for two-room flexi flats, were oversubscribed (see Table 2).

Read also: Approximately 5,000 flats from nine towns will obtain MOP this year

Due to their proximity, unsuccessful applicants of Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II might apply for the upcoming project. Hence, fierce competition can be expected for the Kallang/Whampoa BTO project. However, future residents of the upcoming project are likely to have less ideal views, as Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II front the Geylang River, while the new project is farther from the river.

The proximity of the recently launched Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II could mean that the launch prices of the upcoming Kallang/Whampoa BTO project will mirror those of Tanjong Rhu Riverfront I and II.

HDB resale prices in Kallang/Whampoa

The average resale price of four-room flats ($801 psf) in Kallang/Whampoa has consistently trended above that of two-room ($558 psf) and three-room ($622 psf) flats (see Chart 1). However, three-room flats (44.7%) have achieved the strongest price growth since 2020, compared to two-room (36.1%) and four-room (44.3%) flats.

Thus far, 35 four-room flats have been sold in Kallang/Whampoa this year, and eight of them fetched at least $1 million. The record-high price of $1.25 million ($1,262 psf) was for a 990-sq ft flat at 26B George’s Lane. The lease for the flat started in 2020.

Project #2: Queenstown

The upcoming BTO project in Queenstown is located in the central region and within walking distance of Queenstown MRT Station, and Mei Ling Market and Food Centre (see Map 2). Additionally, the project is a short drive from the Ayer Rajah Expressway. The nearby Queenstown Stadium, Swimming Complex, and Sports Centre, as well as the Alexandra-Queensway Park Connector, would appeal to sporty buyers. The flats are expected to be launched under the Prime category due to their central location and numerous nearby amenities.

The upcoming BTO project in Queenstown is a massive development with approximately 1,110 available flats (see Table 3). Of these, 40.5% are two-room flexi flats, which singles can apply for. These flats are expected to see strong demand because this is only the second BTO exercise in which singles can apply for two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations. Prior to the BTO exercise in October last year, singles could only apply for two-room flexi flats in non-mature estates.

Read also: Final two pandemic-delayed BTO projects completed: HDB

Launched in June last year, Holland Vista is the most recent BTO project in Queenstown. However, Holland Vista is some distance away from the upcoming Queenstown BTO project, as it is located near Buona Vista MRT Station and Holland Village while the upcoming project is located near Queenstown MRT Station.

Holland Vista features only two-room Flexi and four-room flats, both of which were highly oversubscribed, especially the four-room flats (see Table 4). Demand for the upcoming Queenstown BTO project is expected to mirror that of Holland Vista, but the new project is expected to be less costly because it is farther from Holland Village.

The lack of nearby recently launched BTO projects and the excellent locational attributes of the project are expected to boost demand for the upcoming BTO project. Hence, the odds do not favour applicants who are not first-timers, even though the upcoming project has over 1,000 flats.

HDB resale prices in Queenstown

The average resale price for four-room flats ($930 psf) in Queenstown consistently trends above that of two-room ($704 psf) and three-room ($726 psf) flats (see Chart 2). This is despite four-room flats (22.2%) experiencing the weakest price growth since 2020 compared to two-room (47.3%) and three-room (41.2%) flats in the same town.

At the time of writing, 30 four-room flats in Queenstown have been sold. Of these, 14 transacted for at least $1 million. A flat at 92 Dawson Road fetched the record-high price of almost $1.23 million ($1,202 psf). The lease for the 1,022-sq ft flat started in 2016.

Project #3: Woodlands

The upcoming BTO project in Woodlands is the largest one, with over 1,500 flats. It also offers a wide variety of available flat types, from two-room flexi to five-room. The large number of available flats could mean higher chances of success for applicants.

The upcoming project is located within walking distance of Woodlands North MRT Station (see Map 3), which is only one stop away from Woodlands MRT Station. Hence, future residents will be just a short MRT ride away from Causeway Point and Woods Square, both of which are a short walk from Woodlands MRT Station. Additionally, the dual-line Woodlands MRT Station serves as an interchange station for the North-South and Thomson-East Coast Lines.

Despite its proximity to a MRT station, the upcoming Woodlands BTO project is likely to be launched under the Standard category due to its non-central location. This could appeal to prospective buyers who are willing to compromise on location for the usual MOP of five years.

Due to its proximity to Admiralty Park and the Straits of Johor, the upcoming project is expected to appeal to applicants who value a tranquil living environment. Additionally, it is likely to attract applicants who plan to conduct business in the newly established Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone while living in Singapore.

Qihua Primary School is the only primary school within a 1km radius, which could deter some parents of young children. There are limited nearby amenities, but this could be mitigated by the facilities expected to be developed within the project (see Table 5).

Marsiling Peak I and II were launched as part of the BTO exercise in June last year. It is also a massive project with over 1,600 flats and features a wide variety of flat types, from two-room flexi to 3Gen. All flat types in Marsiling Peak I and II were oversubscribed, especially the two-room flexi flats (see Table 6).

Located along Marsiling Lane, Marsiling Peak I and II are a short walk away from the upcoming Woodlands BTO project. In comparison to the upcoming BTO project, Marsiling Peak I and II are nearer to Marsiling Market and Food Centre, but they are further from Woodlands North MRT Station. It is likely that the flats in the upcoming project will be priced at similar levels to those in Marsiling Peak I and II.

HDB resale prices in Woodlands

The average resale price for three-room ($582 psf) flats in Woodlands has consistently trended above that of their four-room ($547 psf) and five-room ($508 psf) counterparts (see Chart 3). Since 2020, all three flat types in Woodlands have achieved price growth exceeding 55%, with three-room flats recording the strongest growth of 63.5%, which could explain its high average resale price. Four-room and five-room flats achieved price growth of 60.4% and 55.4%, respectively.

Thus far, 46 five-room flats in Woodlands have been sold this year, with prices ranging from $600,000 to $820,000. The flat that achieved the record-high price of $820,000 ($674 psf) is located at 183A Woodlands Street 13. The lease for the 1,216-sq ft flat started in 2019.

Projects #4 and 5: Yishun

For this round of the BTO exercise, there will be two projects in Yishun. Both upcoming projects will be analysed together because they share similar locational attributes. Only Bah Soon Pah Road separates the two upcoming BTO projects.

The project nearer to Sembawang Road is larger, with approximately 840 flats (see Map 4), while the other project, nearer to Chencharu Link (see Map 5), is smaller, with approximately 670 flats.

A key difference is the lack of three-room flats in the project with fewer flats. Another key difference is that there will be more facilities within the larger project, while the smaller project will have only a preschool (see Table 7). However, the smaller project is adjacent to Chencharu Hills, which was launched during the June 2024 BTO exercise. Shops, an eating house, a minimart, a preschool, and a senior care centre are expected to be developed within Chencharu Hills.

The flats from both Yishun BTO projects are expected to be launched under the Standard category. Hence, they will be subject to the usual MOP of five years, making the flats ideal for applicants who plan to upgrade in the near future.

Combined, the two Yishun projects will have approximately 1,510 flats. The large number of available flats could mean that applicants will have a higher chance of success. Additionally, large households will be pleased to know that there is a combined total of 1,070 four-room and five-room flats from both projects.

A drawback is the potential noise from Sembawang Air Base, which is located a short walk away from both projects.

The two BTO projects in Yishun are part of the new Chencharu HDB estate, which is expected to yield approximately 10,000 new homes by 2040. Currently, there are limited facilities within walking distance of both upcoming BTO projects. However, more facilities can be expected alongside the development of the new Chencharu estate. Furthermore, there will be some facilities within the two projects to cater to the daily needs of future residents.

The first BTO project in the new Chencharu estate is Chencharu Hills, which was launched in June last year. All flat types in Chencharu Hills were oversubscribed (see Table 8), with at least three applicants vying for each flat. Chencharu Hills is adjacent to the smaller upcoming project near Chencharu Link.

Unsuccessful applicants for Chencharu Hills are expected to submit an application for the upcoming BTO projects in Yishun, thus giving them a boost in demand. Due to the locational proximity of the upcoming BTO projects to Chencharu Hills, the two projects are expected to be launched at similar price points to Chencharu Hills.

HDB resale prices in Yishun

The price difference for three-room ($593 psf), four-room ($598 psf), and five-room ($560 psf) flats in Yishun is minimal, especially between three-room and four-room flats. Notably, the average resale price for five-room flats has been trending similarly to the other two flat types until this year (see Chart 4). This could be because the average resale price for five-room (43.6%) flats in Yishun grew the slowest since 2020, compared to three-room (54.4%) and four-room (59.5%) flats in the same town.

Transaction volume for five-room flats in Yishun has also been lower than for three-room and four-room flats. This year saw the sale of only 33 five-room flats, compared to the sale of 47 three-room and 81 four-room flats. Thus far, no flats in Yishun have fetched more than $1 million. The record-high price of $920,000 ($763 psf) was achieved by a five-room flat at 348B Yishun Avenue 11. The lease for the 1,205-sq ft flat started in 2013.

Which Yishun project to choose?

The smaller Yishun project, with approximately 670 flats, is nearer to Chencharu Hills, so it will probably hold more appeal for unsuccessful applicants of Chencharu Hills compared to the larger upcoming project, with approximately 840 flats. Additionally, the smaller project is nearer to Peiying Primary School and Naval Base Secondary School, which will add to its attractiveness for parents with school-going children. The smaller Yishun project is also located near a proposed commercial and residential integrated development.

Smaller households are likely to opt for the larger Yishun project near Sembawang Road because it features 190 two-room flexi and 90 three-room flats. The smaller project near Chencharu Link features 160 two-room flexi flats and no three-room flats.

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